Sport Picks

Stadium Background

EC Sao Jose (PA) vs Novo Hamburgo

Brazil Brazil

Gaucho Francisco Novelletto Neto, Porto Alegre
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Pedrinho
36'
Eduardo Melo
43'
Romercio

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Novo Hamburgo advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
EC Sao Jose (PA)
39%
Draws
31%
Novo Hamburgo
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Novo Hamburgo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Novo Hamburgo arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Novo Hamburgo, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
EC Sao Jose (PA) Clean Sheet 68%
Novo Hamburgo Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EC Sao Jose (PA) Novo Hamburgo
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 10 10
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 0.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Gaucho
EC Sao Jose (PA) vs Novo Hamburgo
1:2
Feb 14, 2026 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs EC Sao Jose (PA)
3:2
Jan 17, 2026 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs EC Sao Jose (PA)
0:0
Feb 26, 2024 Gaucho
EC Sao Jose (PA) vs Novo Hamburgo
3:0
Mar 11, 2023 Gaucho
Novo Hamburgo vs EC Sao Jose (PA)
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EC Sao Jose (PA) Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel Lima
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Novo Hamburgo Compare

Top Goalscorer Leandro Moura
1 Goals
Assists Leader Henrique Avila
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EC Sao Jose (PA) 41 / 100
Novo Hamburgo 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EC Sao Jose (PA) Novo Hamburgo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EC Sao Jose (PA) has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

EC Sao Jose (PA) found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (27 games).

Defensive concern: Novo Hamburgo conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Scoring Trends

EC Sao Jose (PA) VS Novo Hamburgo
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

EC Sao Jose (PA)

(Home)
18 Jul
EC Sao Jose (PA)
2 : 1
Treze PB
12 Jul
Portuguesa RJ
0 : 0
EC Sao Jose (PA)
04 Jul
EC Sao Jose (PA)
1 : 0
Portuguesa RJ
27 Jun
Santa Catarina
1 : 2
EC Sao Jose (PA)
21 Jun
EC Sao Jose (PA)
1 : 1
Santa Catarina
Page 1 of 6

Novo Hamburgo

(Away)
06 Mar
Novo Hamburgo
1 : 1
Sao Luiz
02 Mar
Sao Luiz
1 : 0
Novo Hamburgo
22 Feb
EC Sao Jose (PA)
1 : 2
Novo Hamburgo
14 Feb
Novo Hamburgo
3 : 2
EC Sao Jose (PA)
07 Feb
Gremio
1 : 0
Novo Hamburgo
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Novo Hamburgo5
EC Sao Jose (PA)3
Sao Luiz3
SER Caxias do Sul2
Final
Novo Hamburgo1
Sao Luiz2