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Ecuador vs Honduras

World World

Friendly International 2024 Pratt & Whitney Stadium, East Hartford, CT
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Sarmiento J.
Assist: Caicedo M.
29' Event
Rochez B.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Benavidez J. In: Vega Orellana A. N.
Out: Benavidez J.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International 2024 game between Ecuador and Honduras finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ecuador.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Ecuador
30%
Draws
29%
Honduras
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ecuador

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Honduras come out ahead of Ecuador on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Ecuador's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ecuador have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 7%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Ecuador Clean Sheet 68%
Honduras Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ecuador Honduras
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 13 6
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.07 1.53
Goals Conceded 0.6 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 0.99 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 16, 2024 Friendly International
Ecuador vs Honduras
2:1
Mar 27, 2019 Friendly International
Honduras vs Ecuador
0:0
Feb 23, 2017 Friendly International
Ecuador vs Honduras
3:1
Sep 8, 2015 Friendly International
Ecuador vs Honduras
2:0
Jun 20, 2014 World Championship
Honduras vs Ecuador
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ecuador Compare

Top Goalscorer Sarmiento J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hincapie P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.76
Avg xA / game 0.49

Honduras Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ecuador 59 / 100
Honduras 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ecuador Honduras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ecuador Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ecuador's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Honduras conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Ecuador remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ecuador VS Honduras
1.13 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.86
75% Over 1.5 71%
13% Over 2.5 29%
0% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Ecuador

(Home)
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
21 Jun
Ecuador
0 : 0
Curacao
14 Jun
Ivory Coast
1 : 0
Ecuador
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
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Honduras

(Away)
07 Jun
Argentina
2 : 0
Honduras
31 Mar
Peru
2 : 2
Honduras
19 Nov
Costa Rica
0 : 0
Honduras
14 Nov
Nicaragua
2 : 0
Honduras
14 Oct
Honduras
3 : 0
Haiti
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