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Stadium Background

Ecuador vs Venezuela

South America South America

Copa América Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Ecuador Logo

Ecuador

1 - 2
FT
Venezuela Logo

Venezuela

Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Valencia E.
29'
Sarmiento J.
31'
Machis D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Ecuador
15%
Draws
39%
Venezuela
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ecuador

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Ecuador carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Ecuador are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Ecuador have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Ecuador, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Ecuador Clean Sheet 68%
Venezuela Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ecuador Venezuela
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 12 8
Draws 13 5
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.03 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.65 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2025 World Championship
Ecuador vs Venezuela
2:1
Jun 22, 2024 Copa América
Ecuador vs Venezuela
1:2
Nov 16, 2023 World Championship
Venezuela vs Ecuador
0:0
Nov 11, 2021 World Championship
Ecuador vs Venezuela
1:0
Oct 10, 2021 World Championship
Venezuela vs Ecuador
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ecuador Compare

Top Goalscorer Sarmiento J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Venezuela Compare

Top Goalscorer Cadiz J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bello E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ecuador 51 / 100
Venezuela 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ecuador Venezuela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Venezuela conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Ecuador remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Venezuela registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ecuador VS Venezuela
1.38 Goals Scored 1
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ecuador

(Home)
01 Jul
Mexico
2 : 0
Ecuador
25 Jun
Ecuador
2 : 1
Germany
21 Jun
Ecuador
0 : 0
Curacao
14 Jun
Ivory Coast
1 : 0
Ecuador
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
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Venezuela

(Away)
10 Jun
Iraq
0 : 2
Venezuela
06 Jun
Venezuela
1 : 2
Turkey
30 Mar
Uzbekistan
1 : 0
Venezuela
27 Mar
Venezuela
4 : 1
Trinidad & Tobago
19 Nov
Canada
2 : 0
Venezuela
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Argentina 3 3 0 0 5:0 9
2 Canada 3 1 1 1 1:2 4
3 Chile 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
4 Peru 3 0 1 2 0:3 1
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezuela 3 3 0 0 6:1 9
2 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 4:3 4
3 Mexico 3 1 1 1 1:1 4
4 Jamaica 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uruguay 3 3 0 0 9:1 9
2 Panama 3 2 0 1 6:5 6
3 USA 3 1 0 2 3:3 3
4 Bolivia 3 0 0 3 1:10 0
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Colombia 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
2 Brazil 3 1 2 0 5:2 5
3 Costa Rica 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
4 Paraguay 3 0 0 3 3:8 0
Promotion - Copa América (Play Offs)