Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Egypt vs Nigeria

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Mohamed V, Casablanca
Sat, Jan 17, 2026
0 - 1
04:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Adams A.
39'
Onuachu P.
45'
Simon M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Nigeria advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Egypt
35%
Draws
32%
Nigeria
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Egypt carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Egypt have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Egypt, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Egypt Clean Sheet 20%
Nigeria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Egypt Nigeria
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 16
Draws 7 7
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.43 1.8
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Egypt vs Nigeria
0:1
Dec 16, 2025 Friendly International
Egypt vs Nigeria
2:1
Jan 11, 2022 Africa Cup of Nations
Nigeria vs Egypt
1:0
Mar 26, 2019 Friendly International
Nigeria vs Egypt
1:0
Mar 29, 2016 Africa Cup of Nations
Egypt vs Nigeria
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Egypt 36 / 100
Nigeria 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Egypt Nigeria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nigeria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Egypt found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Nigeria conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Egypt has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Egypt VS Nigeria
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Egypt

(Home)
07 Jul
Argentina
3 : 2
Egypt
03 Jul
Australia
1 : 2
Egypt
27 Jun
Egypt
1 : 1
Iran
22 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 3
Egypt
15 Jun
Belgium
1 : 1
Egypt
Page 1 of 6

Nigeria

(Away)
10 Jun
Portugal
2 : 1
Nigeria
03 Jun
Poland
2 : 2
Nigeria
30 May
Jamaica
0 : 3
Nigeria
26 May
Nigeria
2 : 0
Zimbabwe
31 Mar
Jordan
2 : 2
Nigeria
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Mali 2
Tunisia 1
Senegal 3
Sudan 1
Egypt 3
Benin 1
Ivory Coast 3
Burkina Faso 0
Algeria 1
D.R. Congo 0
Nigeria 4
Mozambique 0
South Africa 1
Cameroon 2
Morocco 1
Tanzania 0
Quarter-finals
Mali 0
Senegal 1
Egypt 3
Ivory Coast 2
Algeria 0
Nigeria 2
Cameroon 0
Morocco 2
Semi-finals
Senegal 1
Egypt 0
Nigeria 0
Morocco 1
Final
Senegal 0
Morocco 3
Egypt 0
Nigeria 1