Sport Picks

Stadium Background

El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Norteno CF

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 11 2010/2011
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

El Espinar Sant Rafel in this Tercera Division - Group 11 2010/2011 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored El Espinar Sant Rafel.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
El Espinar Sant Rafel
30%
Draws
31%
Norteno CF
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: El Espinar Sant Rafel

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: El Espinar Sant Rafel at 0.91 per game, Norteno CF at 0.73.
  • El Espinar Sant Rafel are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 11 2010/2011 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
El Espinar Sant Rafel Clean Sheet 20%
Norteno CF Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric El Espinar Sant Rafel Norteno CF
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 7 7
Draws 7 3
Losses 18 20
Goals Scored 0.91 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 13, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Norteno CF
2:1
Oct 2, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Norteno CF vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

El Espinar Sant Rafel 67 / 100
Norteno CF 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
El Espinar Sant Rafel Norteno CF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick El Espinar Sant Rafel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Norteno CF conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

El Espinar Sant Rafel has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Norteno CF's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

El Espinar Sant Rafel VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

El Espinar Sant Rafel

(Home)
01 May
El Espinar Sant Rafel
1 : 1
Murense
24 Apr
Platges de Calvia
5 : 0
El Espinar Sant Rafel
14 Apr
El Espinar Sant Rafel
2 : 3
Rotlet Molinar
10 Apr
PE Sant Jordi
2 : 2
El Espinar Sant Rafel
03 Apr
El Espinar Sant Rafel
2 : 0
Soller
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Norteno CF

(Away)
15 May
Constancia
3 : 0
Norteno CF
07 May
Norteno CF
0 : 0
Mercadal
30 Apr
Norteno CF
1 : 0
Alaior
25 Apr
Binissalem
3 : 0
Norteno CF
17 Apr
Norteno CF
0 : 3
Pena Deportiva
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manacor 38 23 10 5 51:23 79
2 UD Poblense 38 24 6 8 71:44 78
3 Constancia 38 23 9 6 62:25 78
4 Binissalem 38 22 10 6 63:30 76
5 Llosetense 38 23 6 9 70:44 75
6 Pena Deportiva 38 19 12 7 53:25 69
7 Santanyi 38 18 9 11 53:43 63
8 El Espinar Sant Rafel 38 12 18 8 47:36 54
9 Mercadal 38 14 10 14 55:45 52
10 Collerense 38 12 11 15 40:49 47
11 CD Montuiri 38 13 7 18 46:58 46
12 Ferriolense 38 12 8 18 48:55 44
13 Campos 38 10 14 14 43:52 44
14 Alcudia 38 11 10 17 43:61 43
15 Felanitx 38 11 9 18 36:56 42
16 CD Ferrerias 38 10 11 17 41:51 41
17 Alaior 38 10 8 20 35:61 38
18 Penya Arrabal 38 8 3 27 45:78 27
19 Norteno CF 38 7 6 25 24:56 27
20 Arenal 38 6 7 25 32:66 25
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2010/2011 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2010/2011 (Main)