Sport Picks

Stadium Background

EL Nacional vs 22 de Julio

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Borja F.
40' Event
Caicedo J.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between EL Nacional and 22 de Julio finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
EL Nacional
39%
Draws
31%
22 de Julio
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • 22 de Julio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 68%
22 de Julio Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EL Nacional 22 de Julio
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 6
Draws 6 7
Losses 19 16
Goals Scored 0.38 0.38
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs 22 de Julio
1:1
Jul 11, 2025 Copa Ecuador
22 de Julio vs EL Nacional
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EL Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Borja F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

22 de Julio Compare

Top Goalscorer Caicedo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EL Nacional 41 / 100
22 de Julio 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EL Nacional 22 de Julio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

22 de Julio let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

22 de Julio lost 4 of their last 5 games.

EL Nacional found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

EL Nacional VS 22 de Julio
0.38 Goals Scored 0.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

EL Nacional

(Home)
24 Jul
EL Nacional
0 : 0
Gualaceo
15 Jul
Vinotinto
2 : 1
EL Nacional
08 Jul
EL Nacional
0 : 1
Cumbaya
02 Jul
Atletico FC
3 : 0
EL Nacional
11 Jun
EL Nacional
0 : 0
Dep. Santo Domingo
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22 de Julio

(Away)
25 Jul
Nueve de Octubre
1 : 0
22 de Julio
18 Jul
Gualaceo
0 : 1
22 de Julio
11 Jul
22 de Julio
0 : 1
Vinotinto
02 Jul
Cumbaya
4 : 0
22 de Julio
09 Jun
22 de Julio
0 : 1
Atletico FC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nueve de Octubre1897220:1134
2Independiente Juniors1887320:1131
3Atletico FC18710121:1331
4CD Cuenca Juniors1886419:1830
5Vinotinto1875623:1626
6Cumbaya1858519:1623
7LDU Portoviejo1864815:2122
8San Antonio1849520:2021
9Gualaceo1867513:1119
10Dep. Santo Domingo1857613:1319
1122 de Julio1843119:239
12EL Nacional18051310:292
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Serie B (Relegation Group)