Sport Picks
EL Nacional vs 22 de Julio
Ecuador
Serie B Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito 
Match Events
9'
9'
Borja F.
40'
40'
Caicedo J.
AI Match Summary
The Serie B game between EL Nacional and 22 de Julio finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
64%
15%
21%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EL Nacional
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- EL Nacional's 0.9 goals per match outpaces what 22 de Julio have produced (0.55).
- EL Nacional are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- EL Nacional have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 68%
22 de Julio Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | EL Nacional | 22 de Julio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 19 | 21 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 0.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.66 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs 22 de Julio
3:0
Jul 31, 2026 Serie B
22 de Julio vs EL Nacional
1:3
May 9, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs 22 de Julio
1:1
Jul 11, 2025 Copa Ecuador
22 de Julio vs EL Nacional
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
EL Nacional Compare
Top Goalscorer Borja F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
22 de Julio Compare
Top Goalscorer Caicedo J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
EL Nacional 95 / 100
22 de Julio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
EL Nacional 22 de Julio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick EL Nacional Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: 22 de Julio conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Away concern: 22 de Julio has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.
EL Nacional scored in 59% of their last 29 games.
Scoring Trends
EL Nacional VS 22 de Julio
1 Goals Scored 0.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
EL Nacional
(Home) 03 Oct
LDU Portoviejo
3 : 2 EL Nacional
26 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 3 Cumbaya
18 Sept
Dep. Santo Domingo
1 : 0 EL Nacional
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0 22 de Julio
05 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 2 LDU Portoviejo
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 3 Cumbaya
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0 22 de Julio
05 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 2 LDU Portoviejo
13 Aug
EL Nacional
0 : 1 San Antonio
06 Aug
EL Nacional
1 : 0 Nueve de Octubre
Page 1 of 3
22 de Julio
(Away) 03 Oct
Gualaceo
4 : 2 22 de Julio
24 Sept
LDU Portoviejo
2 : 2 22 de Julio
17 Sept
22 de Julio
1 : 7 Cumbaya
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0 22 de Julio
04 Sept
22 de Julio
0 : 3 Gualaceo
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Gualaceo
4 : 2 22 de Julio
24 Sept
LDU Portoviejo
2 : 2 22 de Julio
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0 22 de Julio
21 Aug
LDU Portoviejo
2 : 0 22 de Julio
06 Aug
Independiente Juniors
2 : 0 22 de Julio
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Juniors | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 28:16 | 39 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 22 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 25:14 | 38 |
| 3 | Nueve de Octubre | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 22:14 | 37 |
| 4 | CD Cuenca Juniors | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 34 |
| 5 | Vinotinto | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 25:17 | 31 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 24:21 | 31 |
| 7 | LDU Portoviejo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 17:22 | 27 |
| 8 | Cumbaya | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 22:22 | 26 |
| 9 | Dep. Santo Domingo | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 17:16 | 25 |
| 10 | Gualaceo | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 19:16 | 23 |
| 11 | EL Nacional | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 15:32 | 9 |
| 12 | 22 de Julio | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 10:31 | 9 |
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Serie B (Relegation Group)
