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El Palo vs CD Nerja

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 9 2011/2012
El Palo Logo

El Palo

4 - 2
FT
CD Nerja Logo

CD Nerja

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 9 2011/2012 game between El Palo and CD Nerja finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward El Palo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
El Palo
20%
Draws
40%
CD Nerja
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • CD Nerja carry the better recent record into this one.
  • El Palo are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
El Palo Clean Sheet 18%
CD Nerja Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric El Palo CD Nerja
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 7 8
Draws 6 10
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.97 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.65 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 15, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
El Palo vs CD Nerja
4:2
Aug 28, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
CD Nerja vs El Palo
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

El Palo 49 / 100
CD Nerja 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
El Palo CD Nerja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick El Palo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: El Palo scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: CD Nerja conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Away concern: CD Nerja has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

El Palo VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

El Palo

(Home)
10 May
El Palo
0 : 2
Churriana de la Vega
03 May
CD Torreperogil
0 : 2
El Palo
25 Apr
El Palo
1 : 2
Atletico de Porcuna
19 Apr
Torre del Mar
1 : 1
El Palo
12 Apr
El Palo
0 : 1
Motril
Page 1 of 7

CD Nerja

(Away)
13 May
Malaga B
4 : 0
CD Nerja
05 May
CD Nerja
0 : 0
Huetor Tajar
01 May
Antequera
4 : 0
CD Nerja
28 Apr
CD Nerja
1 : 0
Motril
22 Apr
Alhaurin
3 : 0
CD Nerja
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Loja 40 26 8 6 87:33 86
2 Union Estepona CF 40 26 7 7 76:37 85
3 Marbella 40 24 6 10 66:28 78
4 Maracena 40 24 6 10 66:42 78
5 Malaga B 40 22 10 8 79:37 76
6 Comarca 40 20 10 10 57:34 70
7 Mancha 40 20 10 10 53:34 70
8 UD San Pedro 40 20 7 13 68:47 67
9 El Palo 40 19 8 13 63:57 65
10 Martos 40 18 5 17 49:45 59
11 Melilla B 40 14 12 14 44:51 54
12 CD Ronda 40 13 12 15 49:60 51
13 Alhaurin 40 13 11 16 59:63 50
14 Huetor Tajar 40 12 14 14 50:56 50
15 Motril 40 13 8 19 51:47 47
16 CD Nerja 40 11 13 16 41:57 46
17 Velez 40 11 9 20 38:60 42
18 Arenas Armilla 40 9 10 21 35:51 37
19 Antequera 40 9 10 21 47:70 37
20 Ciudad de Vicar 40 5 3 32 22:78 18
21 UD Carboneras 40 1 1 38 6:119 4
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2011/2012 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2011/2012 (Main)