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Stadium Background

El Palo vs Mancha

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Fernandez M.
Own Goal
46' Event
Moreno B.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between El Palo and Mancha finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward El Palo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
El Palo
30%
Draws
39%
Mancha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mancha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mancha come out ahead of El Palo on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
El Palo Clean Sheet 23%
Mancha Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric El Palo Mancha
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 7
Draws 6 9
Losses 18 14
Goals Scored 0.87 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
El Palo vs Mancha
2:0
Sep 14, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs El Palo
0:0
Apr 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
El Palo vs Mancha
0:2
Nov 23, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Mancha vs El Palo
1:1
Apr 25, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
El Palo vs Mancha
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

El Palo Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreno B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Mancha Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

El Palo 37 / 100
Mancha 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
El Palo Mancha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mancha Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

El Palo scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Mancha let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

El Palo has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

El Palo VS Mancha
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

El Palo

(Home)
10 May
El Palo
0 : 2
Churriana de la Vega
03 May
CD Torreperogil
0 : 2
El Palo
25 Apr
El Palo
1 : 2
Atletico de Porcuna
19 Apr
Torre del Mar
1 : 1
El Palo
12 Apr
El Palo
0 : 1
Motril
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Mancha

(Away)
10 May
CD Alhaurino
1 : 1
Mancha
03 May
Mancha
1 : 2
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
26 Apr
Granada CF B
2 : 2
Mancha
19 Apr
Mancha
2 : 1
Huetor Vega
11 Apr
Huetor Tajar
2 : 1
Mancha
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 19 9 6 46:24 66
2 Motril 34 18 11 5 55:29 65
3 Torre del Mar 34 14 13 7 37:26 55
4 Arenas Armilla 34 15 9 10 38:29 54
5 Churriana de la Vega 34 14 10 10 32:40 52
6 Marbelli 34 14 9 11 36:28 51
7 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 13 11 10 39:38 50
8 UD San Pedro 34 13 10 11 39:37 49
9 Atletico de Porcuna 34 14 4 16 41:39 46
10 Huetor Vega 34 12 9 13 43:42 45
11 Granada CF B 34 10 14 10 49:47 44
12 CD Alhaurino 34 11 10 13 41:41 43
13 Melilla B 34 9 12 13 30:32 39
14 Mancha 34 9 10 15 30:38 37
15 Huetor Tajar 34 9 10 15 40:44 37
16 Martos 34 9 10 15 32:48 37
17 CD Torreperogil 34 9 6 19 24:45 33
18 El Palo 34 6 9 19 28:53 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)