Sport Picks
El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Southwest University Park, El Paso, TX 
Match Events
13'
13'
Gordon N.
20'
20'
Farnsworth Z.
30'
30'
Mendez A.
Assist: Calvillo E.
AI Match Summary
El Paso Locomotive in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored El Paso Locomotive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: El Paso Locomotive
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to El Paso Locomotive lately — more wins on the board than Monterey Bay.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on El Paso Locomotive taking it.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
El Paso Locomotive Clean Sheet 20%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | El Paso Locomotive | Monterey Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 6 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 11 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.52 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 6, 2026 USL Championship
El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay
1:0
Jun 21, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive
0:3
Aug 17, 2025 USL Championship
El Paso Locomotive vs Monterey Bay
2:2
Jun 22, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs El Paso Locomotive
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
El Paso Locomotive Compare
Top Goalscorer Mendez A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Monterey Bay Compare
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
El Paso Locomotive 67 / 100
Monterey Bay 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
El Paso Locomotive Monterey Bay
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick El Paso Locomotive Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: El Paso Locomotive scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.
Monterey Bay let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Solid form: El Paso Locomotive remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
El Paso Locomotive VS Monterey Bay
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
El Paso Locomotive
(Home) 11 Oct
El Paso Locomotive
2 : 1 Orange County SC
03 Oct
Lexington
3 : 1 El Paso Locomotive
26 Sept
El Paso Locomotive
1 : 1 FC Tulsa
20 Sept
Phoenix Rising
1 : 3 El Paso Locomotive
12 Sept
Louisville City
1 : 2 El Paso Locomotive
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
El Paso Locomotive
2 : 1 Orange County SC
26 Sept
El Paso Locomotive
1 : 1 FC Tulsa
30 Aug
El Paso Locomotive
4 : 1 Loudoun United
27 Aug
El Paso Locomotive
2 : 1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
09 Aug
El Paso Locomotive
1 : 0 Oakland Roots
Page 1 of 3
Monterey Bay
(Away) 11 Oct
New Mexico
3 : 1 Monterey Bay
04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
New Mexico
3 : 1 Monterey Bay
04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
22 Aug
Rhode Island
3 : 1 Monterey Bay
16 Aug
Oakland Roots
1 : 1 Monterey Bay
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 49:26 | 55 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 34:20 | 50 |
| 3 | Charleston | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 52:33 | 46 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 30:28 | 41 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 45:42 | 40 |
| 6 | Hartford Athletic | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 30:28 | 39 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 39:30 | 38 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 38:47 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34:36 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 34:44 | 27 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 48:36 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 44:33 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 28 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 38:26 | 45 |
| 4 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49:33 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32:25 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41:38 | 41 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 37:44 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 28 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 29:29 | 39 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 37:41 | 36 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | 36 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 33:35 | 35 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 30:50 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
