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El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising

USA USA

USL Championship Southwest University Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

El Paso Locomotive play Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship. It looks like a close match. Recently, El Paso Locomotive averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Phoenix Rising averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, El Paso Locomotive won 0, Phoenix Rising won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on Jun 14, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for El Paso Locomotive and 1.25 for Phoenix Rising. This points to a El Paso Locomotive double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
El Paso Locomotive
35%
Draws
31%
Phoenix Rising
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: El Paso Locomotive

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • El Paso Locomotive picked up more points recently compared to Phoenix Rising.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 58%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
El Paso Locomotive Clean Sheet 19%
Phoenix Rising Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric El Paso Locomotive Phoenix Rising
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 12 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.83 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 14, 2026 USL Championship
El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising
1:1
Nov 2, 2025 USL Championship
El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising
0:1
Aug 31, 2025 USL Championship
Phoenix Rising vs El Paso Locomotive
3:3
Jul 20, 2025 USL Cup
El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising
2:3
Mar 16, 2025 USL Championship
El Paso Locomotive vs Phoenix Rising
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

El Paso Locomotive Compare

Top Goalscorer Mendez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Phoenix Rising Compare

Top Goalscorer Scearce J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

El Paso Locomotive 34 / 100
Phoenix Rising 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
El Paso Locomotive Phoenix Rising

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: El Paso Locomotive or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.4%
1.92
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

El Paso Locomotive attacking → ← attacking Phoenix Rising

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

El Paso Locomotive scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Phoenix Rising let in goals in 69% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

El Paso Locomotive went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Phoenix Rising lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 33
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

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PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Orange County SC1576223:1627
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5Colorado Springs1454524:2219
6El Paso Locomotive1454525:2419
7FC Tulsa1354417:1619
8Lexington1353521:1618
9Phoenix Rising1545620:2217
10Sacramento Republic1244413:1216
11Las Vegas Lights1443721:2515
12Monterey Bay1543814:2215