Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Elche vs Alaves

Spain Spain

LaLiga 2025/2026 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Ibanez P.
29'
Blanco A.
33'
Otto J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this LaLiga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Elche
20%
Draws
38%
Alaves
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Elche

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Alaves lately — more wins on the board than Elche.
  • Elche are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Elche Clean Sheet 18%
Alaves Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elche Alaves
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 LaLiga
Elche vs Alaves
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Elche
3:1
Feb 5, 2022 LaLiga
Elche vs Alaves
3:1
Oct 26, 2021 LaLiga
Alaves vs Elche
1:0
Jul 31, 2021 Club Friendly
Alaves vs Elche
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elche Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Alaves Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elche 41 / 100
Alaves 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elche Alaves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elche's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Elche has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Alaves has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Elche VS Alaves
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Elche

(Home)
28 Jul
Elche
2 : 2
Al Ain
24 Jul
Elche
0 : 0
Johor DT
18 Jul
Elche
2 : 1
Kaizer Chiefs
23 May
Girona
1 : 1
Elche
17 May
Elche
1 : 0
Getafe
Page 1 of 6

Alaves

(Away)
25 Jul
Girona
0 : 1
Alaves
18 Jul
Alaves
1 : 1
Eibar
23 May
Alaves
1 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
17 May
Real Oviedo
0 : 1
Alaves
13 May
Alaves
1 : 0
Barcelona
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barcelona38311695:3694
2Real Madrid38275677:3586
3Villarreal382261072:4672
4Atl. Madrid382161162:4469
5Betis381515859:4860
6Celta Vigo3814121253:4854
7Getafe381561732:3851
8Rayo Vallecano3812141241:4450
9Valencia3813101546:5549
10Real Sociedad3811131459:6146
11Espanyol3812101643:5546
12Ath Bilbao381361943:5845
13Sevilla381271946:6043
14Alaves3811101744:5643
15Elche3810131549:5743
16Levante381191847:6142
17Osasuna381191844:5042
18Mallorca381191847:5742
19Girona389141539:5541
20Real Oviedo386112126:6029
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 (Main)