Sport Picks

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Elche vs Valencia

Spain Spain

LaLiga 2025/2026 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
Our Tip

Match Events

59'
Sangare A.
60'
Sub
Rioja L. In: Lopez D.
Out: Rioja L.
61'
Sub
Sadiq U. In: Duro H.
Out: Sadiq U.

AI Match Summary

The LaLiga 2025/2026 game between Elche and Valencia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Elche.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Elche
40%
Draws
29%
Valencia
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Valencia come out ahead of Elche on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular LaLiga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Elche Clean Sheet 16%
Valencia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elche Valencia
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 13
Draws 6 4
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 LaLiga
Elche vs Valencia
1:0
Jan 10, 2026 LaLiga
Valencia vs Elche
1:1
Apr 23, 2023 LaLiga
Elche vs Valencia
0:2
Oct 15, 2022 LaLiga
Valencia vs Elche
2:2
Mar 19, 2022 LaLiga
Elche vs Valencia
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elche Compare

Top Goalscorer Cepeda L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Valencia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elche 31 / 100
Valencia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elche Valencia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elche found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (27 games).

Valencia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Elche remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Elche VS Valencia
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Elche

(Home)
18 Jul
Elche
2 : 1
Kaizer Chiefs
23 May
Girona
1 : 1
Elche
17 May
Elche
1 : 0
Getafe
12 May
Betis
2 : 1
Elche
09 May
Elche
1 : 1
Alaves
Page 1 of 6

Valencia

(Away)
22 Jul
Valencia
3 : 0
Eldense
18 Jul
Petro Atletico
3 : 1
Valencia
23 May
Valencia
3 : 1
Barcelona
17 May
Real Sociedad
3 : 4
Valencia
14 May
Valencia
1 : 1
Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barcelona38311695:3694
2Real Madrid38275677:3586
3Villarreal382261072:4672
4Atl. Madrid382161162:4469
5Betis381515859:4860
6Celta Vigo3814121253:4854
7Getafe381561732:3851
8Rayo Vallecano3812141241:4450
9Valencia3813101546:5549
10Real Sociedad3811131459:6146
11Espanyol3812101643:5546
12Ath Bilbao381361943:5845
13Sevilla381271946:6043
14Alaves3811101744:5643
15Elche3810131549:5743
16Levante381191847:6142
17Osasuna381191844:5042
18Mallorca381191847:5742
19Girona389141539:5541
20Real Oviedo386112126:6029
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 (Main)