Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Elfsborg vs Hammarby

Sweden Sweden

Allsvenskan Borås Arena, Borås
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Magnusson J.
50' Event
Abraham P.
Assist: Lind V.
69'
Sub
Beck J. In: Ihler F.
Out: Beck J.

AI Match Summary

The Allsvenskan game between Elfsborg and Hammarby finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hammarby.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Elfsborg
30%
Draws
35%
Hammarby
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Hammarby carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 35% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Allsvenskan form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Hammarby have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Elfsborg Clean Sheet 13%
Hammarby Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elfsborg Hammarby
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 17
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.31 2.29
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Allsvenskan
Elfsborg vs Hammarby
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Allsvenskan
Hammarby vs Elfsborg
3:0
May 31, 2025 Allsvenskan
Elfsborg vs Hammarby
0:2
Sep 22, 2024 Allsvenskan
Elfsborg vs Hammarby
0:0
Apr 15, 2024 Allsvenskan
Hammarby vs Elfsborg
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elfsborg Compare

Top Goalscorer Sigurpalsson A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Hammarby Compare

Top Goalscorer Abraham P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Madjed M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elfsborg 35 / 100
Hammarby 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elfsborg Hammarby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HAM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Elfsborg scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Hammarby's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Elfsborg has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Elfsborg VS Hammarby
1 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Elfsborg

(Home)
08 Aug
Mjallby
0 : 1
Elfsborg
26 Jul
Malmo FF
1 : 2
Elfsborg
19 Jul
Elfsborg
1 : 3
Sirius
12 Jul
GAIS
1 : 0
Elfsborg
05 Jul
Elfsborg
1 : 2
Hammarby
Page 1 of 6

Hammarby

(Away)
09 Aug
Hammarby
3 : 0
Hacken
06 Aug
Rakow Czestochowa
0 : 0
Hammarby
30 Jul
Anderlecht
3 : 1
Hammarby
26 Jul
Brommapojkarna
1 : 1
Hammarby
23 Jul
Hammarby
1 : 1
Anderlecht
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sirius 15 13 2 0 42:17 41
2 Hammarby 16 9 3 4 36:15 30
3 Djurgarden 14 8 2 4 33:15 26
4 Hacken 16 6 7 3 28:26 25
5 AIK 16 7 4 5 22:24 25
6 Elfsborg 16 6 6 4 21:18 24
7 GAIS 16 6 5 5 21:15 23
8 Malmo FF 16 7 2 7 31:27 23
9 Vasteras SK 15 6 4 5 24:29 22
10 IFK Goteborg 16 5 4 7 22:35 19
11 Kalmar 16 5 3 8 21:24 18
12 Mjallby 15 4 5 6 20:20 17
13 Brommapojkarna 15 4 5 6 20:24 17
14 Degerfors 16 3 4 9 14:27 13
15 Orgryte 16 3 4 9 20:37 13
16 Halmstad 16 1 4 11 11:33 7
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Superettan 2027 (Main)