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Elgin City vs Fraserburgh

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup Borough Briggs, Elgin
Elgin City Logo

Elgin City

Tue, Sep 8, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Fraserburgh Logo

Fraserburgh

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Challenge Cup. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Elgin City have averaged 1.85 scored and 1.44 conceded recently, against Fraserburgh's 1.97 scored and 1 conceded. Head-to-head, Elgin City have won 3 to Fraserburgh's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Jul 1, 2025, ending 4:1. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 1.50, favoring Fraserburgh. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Elgin City
30%
Draws
31%
Fraserburgh
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Elgin City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Fraserburgh carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Elgin City a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Fraserburgh arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Elgin City, who have won 3 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Elgin City have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Elgin City Clean Sheet 16%
Fraserburgh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elgin City Fraserburgh
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 16 17
Draws 7 5
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.85 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.44 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2025 Club Friendly
Elgin City vs Fraserburgh
4:1
Jun 25, 2022 Club Friendly
Elgin City vs Fraserburgh
2:0
Oct 29, 2011 Scottish Cup
Elgin City vs Fraserburgh
5:2
Oct 22, 2011 Scottish Cup
Fraserburgh vs Elgin City
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elgin City 75 / 100
Fraserburgh 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elgin City Fraserburgh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elgin City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elgin City scored in 85% of their last 34 games.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Elgin City has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Fraserburgh has conceded goals in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Elgin City VS Fraserburgh
2.5 Goals Scored 2.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Elgin City

(Home)
29 Aug
Elgin City
4 : 0
Stirling
25 Aug
Clachnacuddin
0 : 2
Elgin City
22 Aug
Spartans
3 : 3
Elgin City
15 Aug
Elgin City
4 : 1
Kelty Hearts
11 Aug
Elgin City
1 : 2
Ross County
Page 1 of 7

Fraserburgh

(Away)
29 Aug
Fraserburgh
2 : 2
Clachnacuddin
25 Aug
Fraserburgh
1 : 1
Aberdeen B
22 Aug
Lossiemouth
0 : 4
Fraserburgh
19 Aug
Inverurie Loco Works
2 : 1
Fraserburgh
15 Aug
Fraserburgh
2 : 0
Nairn County
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Mirren B 2 2 0 0 9:3 6
2 Clydebank FC 2 2 0 0 8:2 6
3 Peterhead 2 2 0 0 7:2 6
4 Ross County 2 2 0 0 6:1 6
5 Queen of the South 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
6 Montrose 2 2 0 0 5:0 6
7 East Kilbride 2 2 0 0 8:4 6
8 Stirling 2 2 0 0 7:3 6
9 Alloa 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
10 Edinburgh City 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
11 Bonnyrigg Rose 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
12 Spartans 2 1 1 0 7:2 4
13 Aberdeen B 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
14 Celtic B 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
15 Rangers B 2 1 0 1 5:2 3
16 Clachnacuddin 2 1 0 1 5:2 3
17 Formartine Utd 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
18 Stranraer 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
19 Elgin City 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
20 Airdrieonians 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
21 Cove Rangers 2 1 0 1 4:4 3
22 Kelty Hearts 2 1 0 1 6:7 3
23 Hearts B 2 1 0 1 4:8 3
24 Berwick 2 0 1 1 5:6 1
25 Annan 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
26 Kilmarnock B 2 0 1 1 4:6 1
27 Dumbarton 2 0 1 1 3:5 1
28 Fraserburgh 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
29 East Fife 2 0 1 1 4:7 1
30 Cumbernauld Colts 2 0 1 1 1:5 1
31 Hamilton 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
32 Forfar Athletic 1 0 0 1 0:3 0
33 Motherwell B 2 0 0 2 3:7 0
34 Dundee FC B 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
35 Cowdenbeath 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
36 Hibernian B 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
37 Clyde 2 0 0 2 1:7 0
38 Gala Fairydean Rovers 2 0 0 2 0:7 0
39 Dundee Utd B 2 0 0 2 0:7 0
40 Banks O' Dee 2 0 0 2 1:9 0
Promotion - Challenge Cup (Play Offs)