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EM Mahdia vs Msaken - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue 2
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

EM Mahdia host Msaken in the Ligue 2. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: EM Mahdia at 0.97 goals for, 1 against; Msaken at 1.19 for, 1.26 against. Head-to-head, EM Mahdia have won 0 to Msaken's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 27, 2026, ending 2:0. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 0.75, favoring Msaken. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
EM Mahdia
15%
Draws
26%
Msaken
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: EM Mahdia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to EM Mahdia lately — more wins on the board than Msaken.
  • 59% — that's where the model lands on EM Mahdia taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Msaken have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
EM Mahdia Clean Sheet 20%
Msaken Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EM Mahdia Msaken
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 11 10
Draws 9 11
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.19
Goals Conceded 1 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Ligue 2
Msaken vs EM Mahdia
2:0
Oct 25, 2025 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Msaken
1:2
Mar 9, 2025 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Msaken
0:0
Nov 16, 2024 Ligue 2
Msaken vs EM Mahdia
1:0
Apr 1, 2023 Ligue 2
Msaken vs EM Mahdia
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EM Mahdia 76 / 100
Msaken 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EM Mahdia Msaken

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EM Mahdia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Msaken conceded in 71% of 31 recent games.

Recent resilience: EM Mahdia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Msaken lost 3 of their last 5 games.

EM Mahdia found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (32 games).

Scoring Trends

EM Mahdia VS Msaken
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

EM Mahdia

(Home)
03 Oct
EM Mahdia
2 : 1
Kerkennah
26 Sept
Sporting Ben Arous
1 : 2
EM Mahdia
10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0
Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3
Kerkennah
01 May
Menzel Bourguiba
1 : 0
EM Mahdia
Page 1 of 7

Msaken

(Away)
03 Oct
Msaken
0 : 0
Chebba
26 Sept
Kerkennah
1 : 2
Msaken
11 May
Msaken
2 : 4
Chebba
01 May
AS Agareb
1 : 0
Msaken
27 Apr
Msaken
1 : 3
Sfax Railways
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 EM Mahdia 2 2 0 0 4:2 6
2 Soliman 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
3 Megrine 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
4 Msaken 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
5 Sfax Railways 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
6 BS Bouhajla 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
7 Sporting Ben Arous 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
8 US Tataouine 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
9 ES Beni-Khalled 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
10 Stade Soussien 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
11 AS Gabes 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
12 Chebba 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
13 AS Agareb 2 0 1 1 2:5 1
14 Kerkennah 2 0 0 2 2:4 0
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Redeyef 2 2 0 0 6:0 6
2 Kasserine 2 2 0 0 3:1 6
3 JS Kairouan 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
4 Ksour Essef 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
5 Korba 2 1 0 1 3:1 3
6 Kalaa 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
7 Jendouba Sport 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
8 Bouchamma 2 1 0 1 1:3 3
9 Stade Gabesien 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
10 Ariana 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
11 Olympique Kef 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
12 Moknine 2 0 1 1 0:3 1
13 CO Medenine 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
14 Gafsa 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)