Sport Picks
Match Events
65'
65'
Chelly H.
AI Match Summary
The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between EM Mahdia and US Tataouine finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward US Tataouine.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
15%
59%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: US Tataouine
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and US Tataouine come out ahead of EM Mahdia on wins alone.
- 36% — that's where the model lands on EM Mahdia taking it.
- Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors US Tataouine here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
EM Mahdia Clean Sheet 20%
US Tataouine Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | EM Mahdia | US Tataouine |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 16 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 11 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.93 | 0.72 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.32 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 27, 2026 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs US Tataouine
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 Ligue 2
US Tataouine vs EM Mahdia
0:0
Jun 1, 2022 Tunisia Cup
US Tataouine vs EM Mahdia
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
EM Mahdia Compare
Avg xG / game 0.25
Avg xA / game 0.16
US Tataouine Compare
Top Goalscorer Chelly H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
EM Mahdia 36 / 100
US Tataouine 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
EM Mahdia US Tataouine
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 1.67 goals.
EM Mahdia scored in 48% of their last 29 games.
US Tataouine let in goals in 41% of their last 29 matches.
EM Mahdia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
EM Mahdia VS US Tataouine
0.13 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
38% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
EM Mahdia
(Home) 10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0 Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
01 May
Menzel Bourguiba
1 : 0 EM Mahdia
27 Apr
EM Mahdia
0 : 1 US Tataouine
18 Apr
Megrine
0 : 0 EM Mahdia
Page 1 of 6
10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0 Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3 Kerkennah
27 Apr
EM Mahdia
0 : 1 US Tataouine
13 Apr
EM Mahdia
1 : 1 Chebba
29 Mar
EM Mahdia
0 : 0 Sfax Railways
Page 1 of 3
US Tataouine
(Away) 25 May
Stade Gabesien
2 : 0 US Tataouine
11 May
BS Bouhajla
0 : 1 US Tataouine
01 May
US Tataouine
1 : 0 Sporting Ben Arous
27 Apr
EM Mahdia
0 : 1 US Tataouine
22 Apr
US Tataouine
1 : 2 Hammam-Lif
Page 1 of 6
25 May
Stade Gabesien
2 : 0 US Tataouine
11 May
BS Bouhajla
0 : 1 US Tataouine
27 Apr
EM Mahdia
0 : 1 US Tataouine
13 Apr
Kerkennah
0 : 0 US Tataouine
29 Mar
Hamam-Sousse
2 : 0 US Tataouine
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamam-Sousse | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 40:19 | 51 |
| 2 | Hammam-Lif | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 36:14 | 51 |
| 3 | US Tataouine | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 34:16 | 51 |
| 4 | Sfax Railways | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 35:26 | 46 |
| 5 | Sporting Ben Arous | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 30:19 | 34 |
| 6 | Kerkennah | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 27:27 | 34 |
| 7 | Chebba | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 33:37 | 33 |
| 8 | Msaken | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 23:28 | 31 |
| 9 | BS Bouhajla | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 21:23 | 30 |
| 10 | Megrine | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 25:35 | 30 |
| 11 | EM Mahdia | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 18:25 | 28 |
| 12 | AS Agareb | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 22:33 | 28 |
| 13 | Bousalem | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 19:34 | 25 |
| 14 | Menzel Bourguiba | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 15:42 | 17 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PS Sakiet Eddaier | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 54:15 | 56 |
| 2 | Stade Gabesien | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 43:16 | 53 |
| 3 | Kasserine | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 31:18 | 47 |
| 4 | Jendouba Sport | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 34:24 | 38 |
| 5 | Korba | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 21:20 | 37 |
| 6 | Bouchamma | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35:30 | 35 |
| 7 | Gafsa | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 28:31 | 34 |
| 8 | Ariana | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ksour Essef | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 40:34 | 32 |
| 10 | Redeyef | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:39 | 32 |
| 11 | Kalaa | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 28:44 | 30 |
| 12 | Moknine | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29:36 | 29 |
| 13 | Djelma | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 16:33 | 26 |
| 14 | Sidi Bouzid | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17:57 | 14 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
