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Emelec vs Leones del Norte - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil
Emelec Logo

Emelec

Sun, Nov 1, 2026
VS
09:00 PM
Leones del Norte Logo

Leones del Norte

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Emelec host Leones del Norte in the Liga Pro. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Leones del Norte have shipped 1.27 goals a game lately, while Emelec have conceded 1.24 and scored 0.9. Head-to-head, Emelec have won 3 to Leones del Norte's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Oct 18, 2026, ending 1:3. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 1.00, favoring Emelec. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Emelec
20%
Draws
20%
Leones del Norte
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Emelec

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Leones del Norte lately — more wins on the board than Emelec.
  • Emelec are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Emelec have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Emelec Clean Sheet 20%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Emelec Leones del Norte
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.9 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Emelec
1:3
Aug 30, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Leones del Norte
2:1
May 3, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Emelec
2:0
Oct 8, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Leones del Norte vs Emelec
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Emelec 76 / 100
Leones del Norte 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Emelec Leones del Norte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Emelec Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Emelec's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Leones del Norte has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Leones del Norte lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Emelec VS Leones del Norte
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Emelec

(Home)
18 Oct
Leones del Norte
1 : 3
Emelec
10 Oct
Guayaquil City
3 : 2
Emelec
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
08 Sept
Emelec
1 : 0
Manta
Page 1 of 6

Leones del Norte

(Away)
18 Oct
Leones del Norte
1 : 3
Emelec
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
13 Sept
Leones del Norte
0 : 1
Tecnico U.
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Libertad 33 14 8 11 42:35 50
8 Guayaquil City 33 11 10 12 37:43 43
9 Emelec 33 11 9 13 31:40 42
10 Leones del Norte 33 10 10 13 33:39 40
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Qualification)