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Emelec vs Leones del Norte - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil
Emelec Logo

Emelec

2 - 1
FT
Leones del Norte Logo

Leones del Norte

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Ruiz J.
Assist: Fragozo L.
24' Event
Anangono J.
Assist: Griffa E.
46'
Sub
Klimowicz L. In: Pizzini F.
Out: Klimowicz L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Emelec and Leones del Norte finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Emelec.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Emelec
20%
Draws
20%
Leones del Norte
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Emelec

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Leones del Norte carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Emelec are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Emelec here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Emelec Clean Sheet 68%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Emelec Leones del Norte
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.9 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Emelec
1:3
Aug 30, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Leones del Norte
2:1
May 3, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs Emelec
2:0
Oct 8, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Leones del Norte vs Emelec
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Emelec Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruiz J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leguizamon A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Leones del Norte Compare

Top Goalscorer Anangono J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Emelec 86 / 100
Leones del Norte 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Emelec Leones del Norte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Emelec Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Emelec's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Leones del Norte conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Leones del Norte lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Emelec VS Leones del Norte
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Emelec

(Home)
18 Oct
Leones del Norte
1 : 3
Emelec
10 Oct
Guayaquil City
3 : 2
Emelec
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
08 Sept
Emelec
1 : 0
Manta
Page 1 of 6

Leones del Norte

(Away)
18 Oct
Leones del Norte
1 : 3
Emelec
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
13 Sept
Leones del Norte
0 : 1
Tecnico U.
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)