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Erbaaspor vs Derincespor - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Turkey Turkey

TFF 3. Lig Group 2 2016/2017
Our Tip

Match Events

63' Event
Davas D.
71' Event
Kanoglu K.
77' Event
Ozel M.

AI Match Summary

The TFF 3. Lig Group 2 2016/2017 game between Erbaaspor and Derincespor finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erbaaspor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Erbaaspor
15%
Draws
28%
Derincespor
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Erbaaspor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Erbaaspor come out ahead of Derincespor on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Erbaaspor taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Erbaaspor Clean Sheet 20%
Derincespor Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbaaspor Derincespor
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 8 4
Draws 8 9
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 1.12 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2017 3. Lig Group 2
Erbaaspor vs Derincespor
4:1
Dec 18, 2016 3. Lig Group 2
Derincespor vs Erbaaspor
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbaaspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Davas D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Kanoglu K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Derincespor Compare

Top Goalscorer Ozel M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbaaspor 85 / 100
Derincespor 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbaaspor Derincespor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbaaspor Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Derincespor conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Erbaaspor's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Derincespor lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Erbaaspor VS -
1.13 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbaaspor

(Home)
07 Oct
Pazarspor
3 : 1
Erbaaspor
03 Oct
Erbaaspor
2 : 4
Aliaga
27 Sept
Adanademirspor
0 : 3
Erbaaspor
20 Sept
Erbaaspor
3 : 2
Sebat Spor Kulubu
13 Sept
Ankaraspor
2 : 1
Erbaaspor
Page 1 of 7

Derincespor

(Away)
29 Apr
Erbaaspor
4 : 1
Derincespor
23 Apr
Derincespor
1 : 3
Pazarspor
14 Apr
Bodrumspor
2 : 0
Derincespor
09 Apr
Derincespor
3 : 1
Dersim Spor
02 Apr
Duzcespor
4 : 2
Derincespor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bodrumspor 34 19 8 7 59:31 65
2 Erbaaspor 34 16 12 6 48:29 60
3 Silivrispor 34 16 10 8 34:25 58
4 Manisa FK 34 15 13 6 59:37 58
5 Catalca Spor 34 15 10 9 42:33 55
6 Duzcespor 34 14 12 8 55:46 54
7 Beyoglu Yeni Carsi 34 15 8 11 46:39 53
8 Kirikhanspor 34 12 11 11 36:39 47
9 Kemerspor 2003 34 11 12 11 52:45 45
10 Yomraspor 34 10 14 10 28:29 44
11 Bucaspor 1928 34 11 10 13 41:46 43
12 Batman Petrolspor 34 11 10 13 38:38 43
13 Yesil Bursa 34 11 8 15 40:35 41
14 Dardanelspor 34 11 8 15 42:54 41
15 Pazarspor 34 11 6 17 34:46 39
16 Dersim Spor 34 9 6 19 33:54 33
17 Derincespor 34 5 11 18 31:59 26
18 Kirikkale FK 34 4 11 19 28:61 23
Promotion - TFF 3. Lig Group 1 2016/2017 (Play Offs)
Promotion - TFF 3. Lig Group 1 2016/2017 (Play Offs)
Promotion - TFF 3. Lig Group 1 2016/2017 (Play Offs)
Promotion - TFF 3. Lig Group 1 2016/2017 (Play Offs)