Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erbil vs Newroz

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026 Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Ridha Jalil M.

AI Match Summary

Newroz in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newroz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Erbil
20%
Draws
45%
Newroz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Newroz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Newroz.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Erbil Clean Sheet 20%
Newroz Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Newroz
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 15
Draws 8 7
Losses 3 7
Goals Scored 1.69 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.69 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Newroz
0:1
Oct 29, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Erbil
0:1
Jun 14, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Newroz
0:1
Feb 10, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Erbil
2:0
Jul 14, 2024 Stars League
Newroz vs Erbil
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Ridha Jalil M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 36 / 100
Newroz 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Newroz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Newroz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Erbil scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Erbil remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Newroz has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Newroz
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al-Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
Page 1 of 6

Newroz

(Away)
14 Sept
Al Golan
0 : 2
Newroz
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
30 Aug
Newroz
0 : 0
Duhok
26 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 3
Newroz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)