Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erbil vs Newroz

Iraq Iraq

Stars League Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil
Our Tip

Match Events

66' Event
Ridha Jalil M.

AI Match Summary

Newroz in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newroz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Erbil
6%
Draws
4%
Newroz
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Newroz.
  • Win probability leans Erbil's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Erbil Clean Sheet 20%
Newroz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Newroz
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 15
Draws 8 6
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 1.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Newroz
0:1
Oct 29, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Erbil
0:1
Jun 14, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Newroz
0:1
Feb 10, 2025 Stars League
Newroz vs Erbil
2:0
Jul 14, 2024 Stars League
Newroz vs Erbil
4:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Newroz Compare

Top Goalscorer Ridha Jalil M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 85 / 100
Newroz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Newroz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ERB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Erbil scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Newroz conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Erbil has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Newroz
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
28 May
Zakho
1 : 2
Erbil
20 May
Al Shorta
0 : 2
Erbil
16 May
Erbil
0 : 1
Newroz
11 May
Al Najaf
1 : 4
Erbil
Page 1 of 6

Newroz

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Naft
2 : 1
Newroz
27 May
Newroz
1 : 1
Al Mosul
20 May
Newroz
2 : 1
Zakho
16 May
Erbil
0 : 1
Newroz
11 May
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Newroz
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Quwa Al Jawiya38278362:2889
2Al Shorta38248669:3280
3Erbil382310559:3279
4Al Zawraa381715650:3266
5Al-Karma381714753:2665
6Al Talaba381811953:3865
7Al Karkh3816121051:4160
8Newroz381661648:4754
9Zakho3814111349:4553
10Duhok3813111444:4550
11Diyala3813101540:4249
12Al Naft3811151233:3448
13Al Mosul3811141346:4947
14Al Gharraf3811111640:4344
15Naft Missan3811101748:5743
16Al Minaa389131638:4740
17Al Kahraba371152144:5638
18Baghdad381072147:6837
19Al Najaf37652631:6823
20Al-Qassim38063221:966
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)