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Erdi vs Kaposvar

Hungary Hungary

NB III - Southwest 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Gal S.
15' Event
Rostas R.
63' Event
Racz B.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The NB III - Southwest 2025/2026 game between Erdi and Kaposvar finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erdi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Erdi
30%
Draws
38%
Kaposvar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kaposvar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Kaposvar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 38% — that's where the model lands on Kaposvar taking it.
  • Regular NB III - Southwest 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Erdi Clean Sheet 10%
Kaposvar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erdi Kaposvar
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 20
Draws 6 4
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.86 2.33
Goals Conceded 1.41 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 NB III - Southwest
Erdi vs Kaposvar
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 NB III - Southwest
Kaposvar vs Erdi
1:1
Aug 23, 2025 Hungarian Cup
Kaposvar vs Erdi
2:3
May 26, 2024 NB III - Southwest
Kaposvar vs Erdi
5:3
Nov 12, 2023 NB III - Southwest
Erdi vs Kaposvar
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erdi Compare

Top Goalscorer Gal S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rostas R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Kaposvar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erdi 10 / 100
Kaposvar 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erdi Kaposvar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Erdi scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Erdi has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Kaposvar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Erdi VS Kaposvar
2.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Erdi

(Home)
08 Aug
Erdi
3 : 1
Paks II
25 Jul
Erdi
3 : 3
Budaorsi SC
11 Jul
Bicskei
1 : 3
Erdi
24 May
Majosi
3 : 3
Erdi
17 May
Erdi
2 : 1
Kaposvar
Page 1 of 6

Kaposvar

(Away)
12 Aug
Szekszardi
0 : 3
Kaposvar
08 Aug
Kaposvar
7 : 0
Budaorsi SC
25 Jul
Kaposvar
2 : 1
Siofok
10 Jul
Kaposvar
0 : 0
Csepel
24 May
Kaposvar
6 : 2
Dombovari
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nagykanizsa FC 30 21 6 3 64:27 69
2 Pecsi MFC 30 20 7 3 71:25 67
3 Kaposvar 30 20 3 7 64:32 63
4 Ferencvaros II 30 17 4 9 63:43 55
5 Majosi 30 17 3 10 78:49 54
6 MTK Budapest II 30 16 4 10 62:33 52
7 Erdi 30 15 7 8 47:39 52
8 Dunaujvaros 30 13 10 7 58:42 49
9 Ivancsa 30 11 6 13 49:44 39
10 Siofok 30 11 5 14 40:55 38
11 Paks II 30 10 2 18 42:62 32
12 Szekszardi 30 9 4 17 43:75 31
13 PTE-PEAC 30 6 10 14 39:51 28
14 Balatonlelle 30 6 6 18 24:53 24
15 Penzugyor SE 30 4 8 18 31:61 20
16 Dombovari 30 0 3 27 22:106 3
Promotion - NB III - Promotion Play Offs (Main)