Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erfurt vs Babelsberg

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Nordost 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Wolf M.
35' Event
Hasse T.
58'
Weyh K.

AI Match Summary

The Regionalliga Nordost 2025/2026 game between Erfurt and Babelsberg finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erfurt.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Erfurt
40%
Draws
29%
Babelsberg
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Erfurt come out ahead of Babelsberg on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Erfurt Clean Sheet 14%
Babelsberg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erfurt Babelsberg
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 5 5
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 2.25 2.25
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Babelsberg
4:2
Oct 18, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Babelsberg vs Erfurt
0:2
Mar 2, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Babelsberg vs Erfurt
0:2
Oct 2, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Babelsberg
1:1
Apr 7, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Babelsberg vs Erfurt
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erfurt Compare

Top Goalscorer Wolf M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Schwarz T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Babelsberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Hasse T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Schulz L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erfurt 31 / 100
Babelsberg 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erfurt Babelsberg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Erfurt scored in 81% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Babelsberg conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Erfurt remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Erfurt VS Babelsberg
2.25 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Erfurt

(Home)
24 Jul
Erfurt
4 : 1
BFC Dynamo
18 Jul
Erfurt
1 : 0
Kassel
11 Jul
Erfurt
0 : 3
Mainz II
10 Jul
Erfurt
0 : 0
Nurnberg II
05 Jul
Union Muhlhausen
1 : 8
Erfurt
Page 1 of 6

Babelsberg

(Away)
26 Jul
Chemie Leipzig
0 : 2
Babelsberg
18 Jul
Braunschweig U23
1 : 5
Babelsberg
11 Jul
Babelsberg
1 : 4
St. Pauli
04 Jul
Eilenburg
0 : 4
Babelsberg
03 Jul
Halle
1 : 3
Babelsberg
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lokomotive Leipzig34233865:3072
2Jena34226665:3572
3Zwickau34197852:4464
4Hallescher34196963:3663
5Erfurt341710768:4761
6Altglienicke341411950:4053
7Chemnitzer341491156:5251
8BFC Preussen341481250:5550
9Magdeburg II341541561:5549
10Luckenwalde3411101336:4543
11Babelsberg341181567:6541
12BFC Dynamo3410101445:5040
13Chemie Leipzig341241843:4940
14Hertha Berlin II341171646:6040
15Greifswalder FC349111440:4538
16Meuselwitz34891744:6133
17Eilenburg344111935:6823
18Hertha Zehlendorf34282430:7914
Promotion - Regionalliga Nordost 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)