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Erith Town vs Burgess Hill - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

FA Trophy
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the FA Trophy. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Burgess Hill have shipped 1.55 goals a game lately, while Erith Town have conceded 2.25 and scored 1.31. Past meetings favor Burgess Hill slightly — 0-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 2, 2017, ending 0:3. Model xG sits at 1.23 vs 1.15, favoring Burgess Hill. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Erith Town
15%
Draws
45%
Burgess Hill
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Burgess Hill

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Erith Town haven't matched Burgess Hill's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Erith Town's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Burgess Hill arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Burgess Hill, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Erith Town Clean Sheet 20%
Burgess Hill Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erith Town Burgess Hill
Matches Played 16 31
Wins 4 16
Draws 2 6
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.31 2.03
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.15
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 2, 2017 FA Cup
Erith Town vs Burgess Hill
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erith Town 42 / 100
Burgess Hill 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erith Town Burgess Hill

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burgess Hill's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

Erith Town found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (16 games).

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Erith Town remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Erith Town VS Burgess Hill
1.2 Goals Scored 1.5
0.8 Goals Conceded 1.25
80% Over 1.5 88%
40% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Erith Town

(Home)
26 Sept
Hayes & Yeading
1 : 2
Erith Town
12 Sept
Erith Town
2 : 0
Eastbourne Town
05 Sept
SE Dons
2 : 0
Erith Town
29 Aug
Erith Town
2 : 1
Cray Valley
06 Sept
Erith Town
1 : 2
Deal Town
Page 1 of 4

Burgess Hill

(Away)
21 Oct
Whyteleafe
2 : 3
Burgess Hill
17 Oct
Welling
4 : 2
Burgess Hill
13 Oct
Burgess Hill
2 : 0
Dulwich Hamlet
10 Oct
Burgess Hill
1 : 1
Aveley
03 Oct
Burgess Hill
4 : 1
Maldon & Tiptree
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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