Sport Picks

Kazakhstan

First Division 2006

Shakhter Yunost

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ertis Pavlodar 2 play Shakhter Yunost in the First Division 2006. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ertis Pavlodar 2 averaged 2.11 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. Shakhter Yunost averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. In past meetings, Ertis Pavlodar 2 won 3, Shakhter Yunost won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 16, 2007 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Ertis Pavlodar 2 and 1.81 for Shakhter Yunost. This points to a Ertis Pavlodar 2 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%

Ertis Pavlodar 2

15%

Draws

37%

Shakhter Yunost

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Ertis Pavlodar 2 picked up more points recently compared to Shakhter Yunost.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

Ertis Pavlodar 2 Clean Sheet 11%

Shakhter Yunost Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ertis Pavlodar 2	Shakhter Yunost
Matches Played	38	37
Wins	19	14
Draws	5	7
Losses	14	16
Goals Scored	2.11	1.27
Goals Conceded	1.37	1.19
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2007 First League

Shakhter Yunost vs Ertis Pavlodar 2

Possession: 53% - 47% Cards: 4 - 3

2:0

Jun 8, 2007 First League

Ertis Pavlodar 2 vs Shakhter Yunost

Possession: 50% - 42% Cards: 1 - 1

3:0

Aug 30, 2006 First League

Ertis Pavlodar 2 vs Shakhter Yunost

Possession: 54% - 52% Cards: 2 - 0

1:0

Jun 26, 2006 First League

Shakhter Yunost vs Ertis Pavlodar 2

Possession: 60% - 56% Cards: 4 - 4

5:1

Sep 14, 2005 First League

Ertis Pavlodar 2 vs Shakhter Yunost

Possession: 53% - 44% Cards: 2 - 2

4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ertis Pavlodar 2 45 / 100

Shakhter Yunost 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ertis Pavlodar 2 Shakhter Yunost

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ertis Pavlodar 2 or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20%

2.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ertis Pavlodar 2 attacking → ← attacking Shakhter Yunost

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ertis Pavlodar 2 scored in 87% of their last 38 games.

Shakhter Yunost let in goals in 57% of their last 37 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Ertis Pavlodar 2 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Shakhter Yunost lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

62 Points in last 5 49

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zhetysu Taldykorgan	26	25	1	0	119:14	76
2	Kaspij Aktau	26	19	3	4	63:20	60
3	Gornyak Khromtay	26	17	1	8	40:25	52
4	Cesna Almaty	26	16	4	6	64:30	52
5	Zheleznodorozhnik Almaty	26	15	5	6	39:25	50
6	Akzhayik Uralsk	26	16	1	9	56:31	49
7	Zhambyl Taraz	26	9	8	9	35:30	35
8	Aktobe 2	26	10	3	13	43:50	33
9	Munaily Atyrau	26	6	7	13	25:48	25
10	Ordabasy 2	26	7	3	16	34:65	24
11	Koksu	26	6	2	18	32:59	20
12	AI-Universitet	26	5	4	17	29:57	19
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda 2	26	4	3	19	23:71	15
14	Zhastar Uralsk	26	3	3	20	12:89	12

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Avangard Petropavlovsk	24	16	3	5	39:19	51
2	Asbest Zitikara	24	15	5	4	37:17	50
3	Shakhter Karagandy 2	24	12	8	4	25:12	44
4	Spartak Semey	24	12	7	5	46:25	43
5	Kazakhmys	24	12	5	7	36:35	41
6	Shakhter Yunost	24	11	5	8	41:25	38
7	Aksu	24	10	6	8	32:28	36
8	Ertis Pavlodar 2	24	10	4	10	38:28	34
9	Rakhat Astana	24	9	6	9	27:26	33
10	Vostok Oskemen 2	24	9	5	10	33:37	32
11	Tobol 2	24	4	4	16	20:41	16
12	Energetik Pavlodar 2	24	4	2	18	17:47	14
13	Batyr Ekibastuz	24	2	0	22	13:64	6