Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ertis Pavlodar vs Altai

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Shimamura Y.
40'
Sedko P.
46'
Sub
Sedko P. In: Baybosynov N.
Out: Sedko P.

AI Match Summary

Ertis Pavlodar in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ertis Pavlodar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Ertis Pavlodar
33%
Draws
27%
Altai
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Altai lately — more wins on the board than Ertis Pavlodar.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Ertis Pavlodar taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 68%
Altai Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ertis Pavlodar Altai
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 9 10
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 0.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Altai
1:0
Oct 17, 2025 First League
Altai vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:1
Jul 11, 2025 First League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Altai
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ertis Pavlodar Compare

Top Goalscorer Shimamura Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Altai Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ertis Pavlodar 50 / 100
Altai 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ertis Pavlodar Altai

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ERT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ertis Pavlodar's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Defensive concern: Altai conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Difficult form: Altai registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ertis Pavlodar VS Altai
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ertis Pavlodar

(Home)
11 Jul
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 1
Zhenis
05 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0
Ertis Pavlodar
28 Jun
Ertis Pavlodar
1 : 2
Kaisar Kyzylorda
20 Jun
Zhenis
0 : 0
Ertis Pavlodar
14 Jun
FC Astana
2 : 0
Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 6

Altai

(Away)
19 Jul
Altai
2 : 4
Aktobe
15 Jul
Ordabasy
3 : 1
Altai
11 Jul
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 1
Altai
04 Jul
Altai
1 : 0
Tobol
28 Jun
Tobol
3 : 1
Altai
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Ordabasy18134133:1343
2Kairat Almaty19126137:1342
3Okzhetpes1886424:2430
4FC Astana1785425:1929
5Aktobe1884626:2028
6Ulytau1876515:1627
7Yelimay Semey1775525:2226
8Zhenis1857615:2022
9Tobol1854920:2619
10Kaisar Kyzylorda19310614:2119
11Atyrau1739513:1618
12Zhetysu Taldykorgan1846821:2718
13Kaspij Aktau18531016:2318
14Kyzylzhar18441018:2616
15Altai1837814:2216
16Ertis Pavlodar1718814:2211
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)