Sport Picks
Ertis Pavlodar vs Tobol - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kazakhstan
Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar 
Match Events
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Ertis Pavlodar and Tobol finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tobol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Tobol carry the better recent record into this one.
- 42% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ertis Pavlodar | Tobol |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 31 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 13 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.26 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.29 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Tobol Compare
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tobol's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 31 matches.
Ertis Pavlodar's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Ertis Pavlodar went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
These sides typically produce 0.60 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Ertis Pavlodar
(Home)Tobol
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 55:19 | 64 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52:20 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 43:27 | 48 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41:32 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41:37 | 45 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 36:36 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35:36 | 37 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 35 |
| 9 | Zhenis | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 27:34 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:37 | 32 |
| 11 | Kyzylzhar | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 28:40 | 27 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 20:29 | 26 |
| 13 | Ertis Pavlodar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26:36 | 26 |
| 14 | Altai | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 27:38 | 25 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 23:37 | 24 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 26:45 | 22 |
