Sport Picks
Ertis Pavlodar W vs Tobol W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kazakhstan
League Women 
Match Events
45'
45'
Doskeyeva A.
AI Match Summary
The League Women game between Ertis Pavlodar W and Tobol W finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tobol W.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
64%
15%
21%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
21%
/ Low Confidence
- Tobol W carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Tobol W's way, sitting at 70%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Ertis Pavlodar W Clean Sheet 16%
Tobol W Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ertis Pavlodar W | Tobol W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 18 | 30 |
| Wins | 5 | 9 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 10 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.11 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.39 | 2.73 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 3, 2026 League Women
Ertis Pavlodar W vs Tobol W
0:1
May 26, 2026 League Women
Tobol W vs Ertis Pavlodar W
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ertis Pavlodar W Compare
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97
Tobol W Compare
Top Goalscorer Doskeyeva A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ertis Pavlodar W 15 / 100
Tobol W 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ertis Pavlodar W Tobol W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Tobol W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ertis Pavlodar W scored in 67% of their last 18 games.
Tobol W let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.
Tobol W lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ertis Pavlodar W VS Tobol W
1 Goals Scored 0.63
2.38 Goals Conceded 2.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ertis Pavlodar W
(Home) 08 Sept
Zhenis Astana W
2 : 1 Ertis Pavlodar W
28 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar W
0 : 12 Aktobe W
25 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar W
0 : 2 Kyzylzhar W
18 Aug
Shakhter Karagandy W
2 : 1 Ertis Pavlodar W
11 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar W
2 : 0 Altai W
Page 1 of 4
28 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar W
0 : 12 Aktobe W
25 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar W
0 : 2 Kyzylzhar W
11 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar W
2 : 0 Altai W
03 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar W
0 : 1 Tobol W
20 Jul
Ertis Pavlodar W
2 : 0 Okzhetpes W
Page 1 of 2
Tobol W
(Away) 08 Sept
FC Astana W
2 : 0 Tobol W
01 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy W
1 : 0 Tobol W
24 Aug
Tobol W
0 : 2 Yelimay Semey W
17 Aug
Altai W
1 : 1 Tobol W
10 Aug
Tobol W
0 : 3 Kyzylzhar W
Page 1 of 6
08 Sept
FC Astana W
2 : 0 Tobol W
01 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy W
1 : 0 Tobol W
17 Aug
Altai W
1 : 1 Tobol W
03 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar W
0 : 1 Tobol W
14 Jul
Okzhetpes W
0 : 2 Tobol W
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIIK Shymkent W | 16 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 132:5 | 45 |
| 2 | Tomiris-Turan W | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 51:12 | 42 |
| 3 | Kairat W | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 43:25 | 28 |
| 4 | Atyrau W | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 28:30 | 26 |
| 5 | Kaisar Kyzylorda W | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23:30 | 25 |
| 6 | Ordabasy W | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16:39 | 18 |
| 7 | Zhetysu W | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22:43 | 15 |
| 8 | Ulytau W | 16 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5:70 | 4 |
| 9 | Kaspij Aktau W | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1:67 | 3 |
Promotion - League Women (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aktobe W | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 166:2 | 54 |
| 2 | Zhenis Astana W | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 71:34 | 43 |
| 3 | Kyzylzhar W | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 66:14 | 41 |
| 4 | Yelimay Semey W | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 35:28 | 28 |
| 5 | Shakhter Karagandy W | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 16:69 | 23 |
| 6 | FC Astana W | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 24:55 | 22 |
| 7 | Tobol W | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 16:48 | 22 |
| 8 | Ertis Pavlodar W | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 20:43 | 18 |
| 9 | Altai W | 18 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10:65 | 6 |
| 10 | Okzhetpes W | 18 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 13:79 | 6 |
Promotion - League Women (Play Offs)
