Sport Picks

Albania

Kategoria e Parë 2024/2025 Demrozi Stadium

Kastrioti

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Erzeni Shijak play Kastrioti in the Kategoria e Parë 2024/2025. Kastrioti are favorites here. Recently, Erzeni Shijak averaged 0.6 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. Kastrioti averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. In past meetings, Erzeni Shijak won 0, Kastrioti won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 20, 2025 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.23 for Erzeni Shijak and 1.18 for Kastrioti. This points to a Kastrioti double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%

Erzeni Shijak

22%

Draws

58%

Kastrioti

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Kastrioti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence

Erzeni Shijak picked up more points recently compared to Kastrioti.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.23 vs 1.18 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 61%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Erzeni Shijak Clean Sheet 20%

Kastrioti Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Erzeni Shijak	Kastrioti
Matches Played	30	36
Wins	4	14
Draws	4	5
Losses	22	17
Goals Scored	0.6	1.44
Goals Conceded	2.07	1.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 20, 2025 Kategoria e Parë

Erzeni Shijak vs Kastrioti

Possession: 44% - 52% Cards: 0 - 3

2:3

Dec 22, 2024 Kategoria e Parë

Kastrioti vs Erzeni Shijak

Possession: 58% - 41% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Sep 29, 2024 Kategoria e Parë

Erzeni Shijak vs Kastrioti

Possession: 46% - 40% Cards: 3 - 1

2:3

Apr 15, 2023 Abissnet Superiore

Erzeni Shijak vs Kastrioti

Possession: 57% - 59% Cards: 2 - 3

0:0

Feb 7, 2023 Abissnet Superiore

Kastrioti vs Erzeni Shijak

Possession: 42% - 46% Cards: 1 - 2

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erzeni Shijak Compare

Top Goalscorer Isteri E.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Tahiri X.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Kastrioti Compare

Top Goalscorer Musaj O.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Lushaku K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erzeni Shijak 22 / 100

Kastrioti 55 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Erzeni Shijak Kastrioti

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kastrioti Win (2)

Secondary Pick Kastrioti & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +66.6%

8.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.82

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Erzeni Shijak attacking → ← attacking Kastrioti

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Erzeni Shijak scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Kastrioti let in goals in 83% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Erzeni Shijak went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Kastrioti lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

16 Points in last 5 47

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vora	33	24	4	5	55:24	76
2	Flamurtari	33	23	6	4	62:21	75
3	Besa Kavaje	33	22	8	3	54:18	74
4	Burreli	33	16	10	7	36:22	58
5	Pogradeci	33	14	7	12	33:35	49
6	Apolonia Fier	33	11	12	10	45:32	45
7	Lushnja	33	13	5	15	39:41	44
8	Korabi Peshkopi	33	12	5	16	35:48	41
9	Kastrioti	33	11	5	17	35:49	38
10	Kukesi	33	8	4	21	29:56	28
11	KF Valbona	33	3	7	23	29:59	16
12	Erzeni Shijak	33	2	5	26	16:63	11