Sport Picks
Match Events
70'
70'
Bouchamia M.
AI Match Summary
ES Jerba in this Ligue 2 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored ES Jerba.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: ES Jerba
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Kasserine have won more games recently than ES Jerba.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on ES Jerba taking it.
- Regular Ligue 2 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
ES Jerba Clean Sheet 68%
Kasserine Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | ES Jerba | Kasserine |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 7 | 18 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 15 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.57 | 1.3 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 0.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.10 | 1.11 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 20, 2025 Ligue 2
ES Jerba vs Kasserine
1:0
Dec 8, 2024 Ligue 2
Kasserine vs ES Jerba
1:0
Jun 28, 2020 Ligue 2
ES Jerba vs Kasserine
0:0
Dec 21, 2019 Ligue 2
Kasserine vs ES Jerba
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
ES Jerba Compare
Top Goalscorer Bouchamia M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55
Kasserine Compare
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
ES Jerba 59 / 100
Kasserine 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
ES Jerba Kasserine
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ES Jerba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kasserine has conceded goals in 64% of their last 33 outings.
Recent resilience: ES Jerba stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Kasserine's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
ES Jerba scored in 43% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Kasserine
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
ES Jerba
(Home) 23 May
Sfax Railways
3 : 2 ES Jerba
16 May
ES Jerba
1 : 1 Chebba
10 May
Sidi Bouzid
2 : 0 ES Jerba
05 May
ES Jerba
2 : 0 PS Sakiet Eddaier
26 Apr
JS Kairouan
0 : 2 ES Jerba
Page 1 of 6
16 May
ES Jerba
1 : 1 Chebba
05 May
ES Jerba
2 : 0 PS Sakiet Eddaier
20 Apr
ES Jerba
1 : 0 Kasserine
15 Mar
ES Jerba
1 : 0 Redeyef
08 Mar
ES Jerba
0 : 0 BS Bouhajla
Page 1 of 4
Kasserine
(Away) 25 May
Hammam-Lif
1 : 0 Kasserine
12 May
Kasserine
1 : 0 Ksour Essef
02 May
Redeyef
1 : 0 Kasserine
28 Apr
Kasserine
1 : 1 Stade Gabesien
19 Apr
Djelma
1 : 0 Kasserine
Page 1 of 7
25 May
Hammam-Lif
1 : 0 Kasserine
02 May
Redeyef
1 : 0 Kasserine
19 Apr
Djelma
1 : 0 Kasserine
28 Mar
Kalaa
0 : 4 Kasserine
21 Feb
Gafsa
0 : 1 Kasserine
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Marsa | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 40:17 | 53 |
| 2 | Megrine | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 49:23 | 52 |
| 3 | Jendouba Sport | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 38:19 | 49 |
| 4 | Hamam-Sousse | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 36:28 | 36 |
| 5 | Korba | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 22:28 | 36 |
| 6 | Hammam-Lif | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 25:26 | 34 |
| 7 | Msaken | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 18:17 | 33 |
| 8 | Ariana | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 33:33 | 33 |
| 9 | Kalaa | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 30:34 | 31 |
| 10 | EM Mahdia | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26:37 | 31 |
| 11 | Moknine | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 27:30 | 30 |
| 12 | Menzel Bourguiba | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 18:27 | 30 |
| 13 | Oued Ellil | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23:32 | 27 |
| 14 | Rades | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 16:50 | 14 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JS Kairouan | 26 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 30:11 | 54 |
| 2 | Kasserine | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 36:17 | 53 |
| 3 | Kerkennah | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 36:21 | 44 |
| 4 | Sfax Railways | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 35:22 | 44 |
| 5 | PS Sakiet Eddaier | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 32:23 | 44 |
| 6 | BS Bouhajla | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 21:22 | 33 |
| 7 | Redeyef | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 23:25 | 33 |
| 8 | Djelma | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 26:26 | 32 |
| 9 | Sidi Bouzid | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:28 | 32 |
| 10 | Chebba | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 24:29 | 32 |
| 11 | Stade Gabesien | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 13:23 | 30 |
| 12 | AS Agareb | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 23:35 | 30 |
| 13 | ES Jerba | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 15:24 | 26 |
| 14 | Espoir Rogba | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 19:54 | 13 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 (Main)
