Sport Picks

Stadium Background

ESMAC vs Independente

Brazil Brazil

Paraense B1 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

ESMAC in this Paraense B1 2024 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
ESMAC
35%
Draws
47%
Independente
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Independente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Independente have won more games recently than ESMAC.
  • Model gives Independente a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Independente arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor ESMAC, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
ESMAC Clean Sheet 20%
Independente Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ESMAC Independente
Matches Played 11 30
Wins 2 9
Draws 5 12
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 0.82 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.15 1.07
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 26, 2024 Paraense A2
Independente vs ESMAC
3:0
Oct 21, 2024 Paraense A2
ESMAC vs Independente
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ESMAC 10 / 100
Independente 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ESMAC Independente

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: ESMAC scored in 73% of their last 11 outings.

Independente has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

ESMAC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

ESMAC VS Independente
0.8 Goals Scored 0.75
1.4 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
20% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

ESMAC

(Home)
05 Sept
ESMAC
1 : 1
Venus
23 Jun
Uniao Paraense
1 : 1
ESMAC
19 Jun
ESMAC
1 : 2
Amazonia IFC
11 Jun
ESMAC
0 : 2
Uniao Paraense
07 Jun
Amazonia IFC
1 : 1
ESMAC
Page 1 of 3

Independente

(Away)
07 Jun
Independente
0 : 0
Itupiranga
04 Jun
Itupiranga
1 : 0
Independente
30 May
Independente
3 : 0
Uniao Paraense
13 May
Izabelense
1 : 2
Independente
09 May
Uniao Paraense
1 : 1
Independente
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Capitao Poco 2
Izabelense 0
Amazonia IFC 0
Paragominas 5
Carajas 2
Sao Raimundo PA 1
ESMAC 1
Independente 3
Semi-finals
Capitao Poco 3
Paragominas 0
Carajas 1
Independente 2
Final
Capitao Poco 1
Independente 2