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Esperanca vs Carroi

Andorra Andorra

Primera Divisió 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Laffont Q.
24'
Semedo G.
29' Event
Amaral L.

AI Match Summary

The Primera Divisió 2025/2026 game between Esperanca and Carroi finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Esperanca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Esperanca
20%
Draws
23%
Carroi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Esperanca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Carroi haven't matched Esperanca's recent run of results.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Esperanca taking it.
  • Regular Primera Divisió 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Esperanca Clean Sheet 68%
Carroi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esperanca Carroi
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 6 4
Draws 5 7
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 1 0.61
Goals Conceded 1.82 2.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Carroi
4:1
Feb 15, 2026 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Carroi
0:0
Nov 16, 2025 Primera Divisió
Carroi vs Esperanca
2:1
Apr 27, 2024 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Carroi
2:0
Jan 20, 2024 Primera Divisió
Carroi vs Esperanca
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esperanca Compare

Top Goalscorer Amaral L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Del Castillo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Carroi Compare

Top Goalscorer Diarra B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esperanca 95 / 100
Carroi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esperanca Carroi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esperanca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carroi let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Esperanca went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Carroi registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Esperanca VS Carroi
1.5 Goals Scored 0.38
1 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Esperanca

(Home)
20 Sept
Esperanca
4 : 0
Ordino
13 Sept
FC Rangers
2 : 1
Esperanca
06 Sept
Esperanca
2 : 2
Inter Escaldes
27 May
Esperanca
2 : 0
Sporting Escaldes
23 May
Sporting Escaldes
1 : 3
Esperanca
Page 1 of 6

Carroi

(Away)
19 Sept
Carroi
2 : 2
Penya
13 Sept
Inter Escaldes
3 : 0
Carroi
05 Sept
Carroi
0 : 3
FC Santa Coloma
16 May
Carroi
2 : 1
Inter Escaldes
26 Apr
Atletic Escaldes
3 : 0
Carroi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter Escaldes 24 17 3 4 47:24 54
2 UE Santa Coloma 24 14 6 4 42:16 48
3 FC Rangers 24 15 3 6 46:22 48
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 13 5 6 45:20 44
5 Atletic Escaldes 24 10 4 10 31:26 34
6 Penya 24 7 3 14 19:41 24
7 Ordino 24 6 4 14 27:42 22
8 Carroi 24 4 5 15 15:55 17
9 Esperanca 24 3 5 16 18:44 14
10 Pas de la Casa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Primera Divisió 2025/2026 (Relegation)