Sport Picks

Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025

Comercial MS

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis play Comercial MS in the Sul-Matogrossense 2 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Esporte Clube Taveiropolis averaged 1 goals scored and 2.15 conceded. Comercial MS averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. In past meetings, Esporte Clube Taveiropolis won 1, Comercial MS won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 9, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Esporte Clube Taveiropolis and 1.69 for Comercial MS. This points to a Comercial MS double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis

18%

Draws

47%

Comercial MS

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Comercial MS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis picked up more points recently compared to Comercial MS.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 71%

Over 3.5 Goals 43%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis Clean Sheet 13%

Comercial MS Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Esporte Clube Taveiropolis	Comercial MS
Matches Played	13	26
Wins	3	6
Draws	0	7
Losses	10	13
Goals Scored	1	1.19
Goals Conceded	2.15	1.65
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.13	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2

Comercial MS vs Esporte Clube Taveiropolis

Possession: 53% - 44% Cards: 0 - 2

1:2

Sep 13, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense 2

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis vs Comercial MS

Possession: 57% - 47% Cards: 3 - 3

1:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis 34 / 100

Comercial MS 44 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis Comercial MS

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Comercial MS or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +29.5%

3.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.3%

1.54

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis attacking → ← attacking Comercial MS

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis scored in 69% of their last 13 games.

Comercial MS let in goals in 88% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Esporte Clube Taveiropolis went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Comercial MS lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 25

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bataguassu	10	7	2	1	27:9	23
2	Clube de Regatas Aquidauana	10	7	2	1	23:7	23
3	Maracaju	10	4	4	2	12:13	16
4	Comercial MS	10	2	4	4	12:17	10
5	Esporte Clube Taveiropolis	10	2	0	8	11:25	6
6	Sao Gabriel MS	10	1	2	7	6:20	5