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Stadium Background

Esteghlal TEH vs Fajr Sepasi

Iran Iran

Persian Gulf Pro League Azadi Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Saharkhizan S.
45' Event
Sharifi M.
62'
Sub
Moradi M. In: Rigi M.
Out: Moradi M.

AI Match Summary

Esteghlal TEH in this Persian Gulf Pro League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esteghlal TEH.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Esteghlal TEH
39%
Draws
31%
Fajr Sepasi
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Esteghlal TEH lately — more wins on the board than Fajr Sepasi.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Persian Gulf Pro League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Esteghlal TEH have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Esteghlal TEH Clean Sheet 20%
Fajr Sepasi Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteghlal TEH Fajr Sepasi
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 16 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 0.88 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Persian Gulf Pro League
Esteghlal TEH vs Fajr Sepasi
2:1
Oct 26, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Fajr Sepasi vs Esteghlal TEH
0:3
Feb 23, 2022 Persian Gulf Pro League
Esteghlal TEH vs Fajr Sepasi
1:0
Nov 5, 2021 Persian Gulf Pro League
Fajr Sepasi vs Esteghlal TEH
1:1
Oct 17, 2019 Hazfi Cup
Esteghlal TEH vs Fajr Sepasi
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteghlal TEH Compare

Top Goalscorer Saharkhizan S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cheshmi R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Fajr Sepasi Compare

Top Goalscorer Sharifi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteghlal TEH 31 / 100
Fajr Sepasi 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteghlal TEH Fajr Sepasi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteghlal TEH found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Fajr Sepasi has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Esteghlal TEH stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Esteghlal TEH VS Fajr Sepasi
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
25% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Esteghlal TEH22118329:1641
2Tractor22109330:1239
3Sepahan22116524:1339
4Gol Gohar23106724:2436
5Chadormalu2298527:1935
6Persepolis2297623:1934
7Foolad22710521:1631
8Fajr Sepasi2386925:2730
9Kheybar Khorramabad2378822:2429
10Malavan2278713:2129
11Esteghlal Khuzestan2267916:2325
12Paykan2359915:2124
13Shams Azar Qazvin23313715:1922
14Aluminium Arak22571014:2122
15Zob Ahan21310812:1919
16Mes Rafsanjan22361313:2915