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Esteli vs San Marcos Prediction & H2H Stats

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Castro M.
44' Event
Castillo E.
57'

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera game between Esteli and San Marcos finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Esteli
20%
Draws
42%
San Marcos
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: San Marcos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Esteli come out ahead of San Marcos on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Esteli's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Liga Primera form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Esteli have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Esteli Clean Sheet 20%
San Marcos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli San Marcos
Matches Played 57 32
Wins 40 10
Draws 11 7
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 2.19 1.47
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs San Marcos
2:0
Mar 16, 2014 Liga Primera
San Marcos vs Esteli
0:0
Jan 26, 2014 Liga Primera
Esteli vs San Marcos
2:0
Oct 13, 2013 Liga Primera
San Marcos vs Esteli
1:2
Aug 25, 2013 Liga Primera
Esteli vs San Marcos
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Castro M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castillo E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

San Marcos Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 42 / 100
San Marcos 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli San Marcos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli scored in 82% of their last 57 games.

San Marcos let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Esteli remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS San Marcos
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 12

San Marcos

(Away)
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
San Marcos
1 : 0
Walter Ferreti
23 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 2
San Marcos
16 Aug
Matagalpa
1 : 0
San Marcos
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Managua FC 9 7 2 0 27:9 23
2 Diriangen 9 7 2 0 20:6 23
3 Esteli 9 5 3 1 17:6 18
4 UNAN-Managua 9 5 2 2 11:7 17
5 Sport Sebaco 9 3 2 4 9:17 11
6 San Marcos 9 3 1 5 8:14 10
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 4:16 9
8 Walter Ferreti 9 2 1 6 12:16 7
9 Rancho Santana 9 1 2 6 7:14 5
10 Jalapa 9 1 1 7 4:14 4
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)