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Estonia W vs Lithuania W

World World

World Cup Women A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Svarcaite V.
Assist: Griksaite M.
42' Event
Lillemae M.
Assist: Kubassova V.
46'
Sub
Kubiliute L. In: Smailyte G.
Out: Kubiliute L.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Estonia W
30%
Draws
31%
Lithuania W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Estonia W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Lithuania W have won more games recently than Estonia W.
  • 31% — that's where the model lands on Lithuania W taking it.
  • Lithuania W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Estonia W, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Estonia W Clean Sheet 18%
Lithuania W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estonia W Lithuania W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 11
Draws 7 5
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 1.07 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 World Cup Women
Estonia W vs Lithuania W
2:1
Mar 7, 2026 World Cup Women
Lithuania W vs Estonia W
0:0
Nov 29, 2025 Friendly International Women
Estonia W vs Lithuania W
0:2
Oct 24, 2024 Friendly International Women
Estonia W vs Lithuania W
3:2
Oct 6, 2022 Friendly International Women
Estonia W vs Lithuania W
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estonia W Compare

Top Goalscorer Lillemae M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tammik L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Lithuania W Compare

Top Goalscorer Svarcaite V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estonia W 28 / 100
Lithuania W 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estonia W Lithuania W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lithuania W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estonia W found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Lithuania W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Estonia W went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Estonia W VS Lithuania W
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Estonia W

(Home)
09 Jun
Estonia W
1 : 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina W
05 Jun
Liechtenstein W
0 : 5
Estonia W
18 Apr
Estonia W
2 : 1
Lithuania W
14 Apr
Estonia W
2 : 1
Liechtenstein W
10 Apr
Czech Republic U23 W
4 : 0
Estonia W
Page 1 of 6

Lithuania W

(Away)
09 Jun
Lithuania W
2 : 0
Liechtenstein W
05 Jun
Bosnia & Herzegovina W
0 : 0
Lithuania W
18 Apr
Estonia W
2 : 1
Lithuania W
14 Apr
Lithuania W
2 : 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina W
07 Mar
Lithuania W
0 : 0
Estonia W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lithuania W 6 3 2 1 11:3 11
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina W 6 3 2 1 23:5 11
3 Estonia W 6 3 2 1 11:6 11
4 Liechtenstein W 6 0 0 6 3:34 0
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kosovo W 6 5 0 1 20:3 15
2 Croatia W 6 5 0 1 16:1 15
3 Bulgaria W 6 2 0 4 10:11 6
4 Gibraltar W 6 0 0 6 1:32 0
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hungary W 6 5 1 0 21:2 16
2 Azerbaijan W 6 4 0 2 11:5 12
3 North Macedonia W 6 2 0 4 5:17 6
4 Andorra W 6 0 1 5 2:15 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Greece W 4 4 0 0 11:4 12
2 Faroe Islands W 4 2 0 2 6:7 6
3 Georgia W 4 0 0 4 4:10 0
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Romania W 4 3 1 0 8:0 10
2 Moldova W 4 1 2 1 2:1 5
3 Cyprus W 4 0 1 3 0:9 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Belarus W 4 3 0 1 10:1 9
2 Kazakhstan W 4 2 1 1 5:2 7
3 Armenia W 4 0 1 3 1:13 1
Promotion - World Cup Women (Promotion - Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams