Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Estradense vs Covadonga

Spain Spain

Copa Federacion 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Fernandez M.
28' Event
Fernandez M.
49' Event
Madrigal S.

AI Match Summary

Estradense in this Copa Federacion 2025 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Estradense
35%
Draws
32%
Covadonga
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Estradense haven't matched Covadonga's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Estradense a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Covadonga arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Estradense, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Estradense Clean Sheet 16%
Covadonga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estradense Covadonga
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 11 21
Draws 8 6
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.34 2.39
Goals Conceded 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2025 Copa Federacion
Estradense vs Covadonga
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estradense Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Covadonga Compare

Top Goalscorer Madrigal S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estradense 36 / 100
Covadonga 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estradense Covadonga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Estradense scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Estradense remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Covadonga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 33 matches.

Scoring Trends

Estradense VS Covadonga
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Estradense

(Home)
12 Sept
Atletico Arteixo
1 : 1
Estradense
06 Sept
Estradense
1 : 3
Sarriana
28 Aug
Compostela
2 : 2
Estradense
26 Aug
Estradense
2 : 0
Arzua
08 Aug
Estradense
0 : 5
Pontevedra
Page 1 of 6

Covadonga

(Away)
13 Sept
Langreo
2 : 2
Covadonga
06 Sept
Covadonga
4 : 0
Aviles Stadium
29 Aug
Gijon Industrial
0 : 0
Covadonga
05 Aug
Real Oviedo B
6 : 0
Covadonga
07 Jun
Covadonga
2 : 4
Caudal Deportivo
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
CE Atletic Lleida 1
Tudelano 0
Formentera 1
SD Ibiza 0
Terrassa 4
Atletico Monzon 0
SD Ejea 2
UE Tona 0
Bergantinos 4
Marino De Luanco 2
Estradense 2
Covadonga 1
CD Laredo 1
Ourense CF 5
Zamora 4
Amorebieta 1
Varea 2
Moralo 0
San Sebastian Reyes 1
Alfaro 0
Laguna Tenerife 1
Toledo 2
Jaraiz 2
CD Coria 3
Deportiva Minera 3
Melilla 0
Molinense 2
Xerez CD 0
Ceuta 6 de Junio 2
Orihuela 5
Huetor Tajar 2
Bollullos 1
1/8-finals
CE Atletic Lleida 6
Formentera 1
Terrassa 0
SD Ejea 1
Bergantinos 2
Estradense 1
Ourense CF 2
Zamora 1
Varea 1
San Sebastian Reyes 2
Toledo 1
CD Coria 0
Deportiva Minera 3
Molinense 0
Orihuela 3
Huetor Tajar 0
Quarter-finals
CE Atletic Lleida 2
SD Ejea 1
Bergantinos 0
Ourense CF 2
San Sebastian Reyes 0
Toledo 1
Deportiva Minera 0
Orihuela 1
Semi-finals
CE Atletic Lleida 3
Ourense CF 4
Toledo 2
Orihuela 4
Final
Ourense CF 3
Orihuela 0