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Estrela do Norte vs Castelo FC

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Capixaba 2014
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Capixaba 2014 game between Estrela do Norte and Castelo FC finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Estrela do Norte.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Estrela do Norte
28%
Draws
22%
Castelo FC
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Estrela do Norte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Estrela do Norte come out ahead of Castelo FC on wins alone.
  • Model gives Estrela do Norte a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato Capixaba 2014 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Estrela do Norte Clean Sheet 16%
Castelo FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estrela do Norte Castelo FC
Matches Played 39 34
Wins 18 10
Draws 6 11
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.88 2.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2019 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Castelo FC
3:0
Mar 18, 2015 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Castelo FC
1:0
Feb 4, 2015 Capixaba
Castelo FC vs Estrela do Norte
0:0
Apr 20, 2014 Capixaba
Castelo FC vs Estrela do Norte
2:0
Feb 15, 2014 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Castelo FC
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela do Norte 48 / 100
Castelo FC 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estrela do Norte Castelo FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Estrela do Norte scored in 69% of their last 39 outings.

Castelo FC has conceded goals in 71% of their last 34 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Estrela do Norte stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Estrela do Norte VS Castelo FC
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Estrela do Norte

(Home)
22 Jul
Estrela do Norte
5 : 0
Pinheiros
12 Jul
Rive
0 : 2
Estrela do Norte
04 Oct
Estrela do Norte
0 : 1
Forte
28 Sept
Forte
2 : 1
Estrela do Norte
20 Sept
GEL
0 : 5
Estrela do Norte
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Castelo FC

(Away)
18 Nov
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Castelo FC
13 Nov
Castelo FC
0 : 1
Vilavelhense
26 Oct
Capixaba SC
3 : 2
Castelo FC
18 Oct
Castelo FC
3 : 0
Sport-ES
15 Oct
GEL
1 : 7
Castelo FC
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1SAO Mateus1686226:1130
2Linhares Futebol Clube1693428:1730
3Estrela do Norte1685322:1329
4Castelo FC1676328:2027
5Vitoria ES1664626:2322
6Real Noroeste1656520:1921
7Desportiva Ferroviaria1663721:2221
8Colatina SE1634916:3313
9Conilon16111410:394
Promotion - Campeonato Capixaba 2014 (Play Offs)