Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025

Lusitano GC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Estrela Vendas Novas play Lusitano GC in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025. Lusitano GC are favorites here. Recently, Estrela Vendas Novas averaged 0 goals scored and 0 conceded. Lusitano GC averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Estrela Vendas Novas won 0, Lusitano GC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 2, 2025 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Estrela Vendas Novas and 0.93 for Lusitano GC. This points to a Lusitano GC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

Estrela Vendas Novas

Draws

90%

Lusitano GC

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Lusitano GC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Lusitano GC has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Estrela Vendas Novas.
Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Lusitano GC.
League standings and seasonal metrics in Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 provide steady trend data.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 3%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%

Estrela Vendas Novas Clean Sheet 24%

Lusitano GC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Estrela Vendas Novas	Lusitano GC
Matches Played	30	37
Wins	2	18
Draws	2	8
Losses	26	11
Goals Scored	0	0.75
Goals Conceded	0	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Estrela Vendas Novas vs Lusitano GC

Possession: 41% - 58% Cards: 3 - 3

0:3

Nov 3, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Lusitano GC vs Estrela Vendas Novas

Possession: 53% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estrela Vendas Novas Compare

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Lusitano GC Compare

Top Goalscorer Palancha T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Lopes D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela Vendas Novas 10 / 100

Lusitano GC 95 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Estrela Vendas Novas Lusitano GC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUS Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:3

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrela Vendas Novas scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Lusitano GC let in goals in 68% of their last 37 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Estrela Vendas Novas went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Lusitano GC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Lusitano GC

0 Goals Scored 0.75

0 Goals Conceded 1.13

0% Over 1.5 50%

0% Over 2.5 25%

0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lusitano GC	26	18	4	4	57:14	58
2	Amora	26	17	6	3	41:19	57
3	Sintrense	26	16	4	6	39:26	52
4	Moncarapachense	26	15	6	5	39:19	51
5	Louletano	26	15	5	6	44:20	50
6	Serpa	26	13	6	7	42:27	45
7	Estrela da Amadora B	26	7	9	10	35:31	30
8	Lagoa	26	7	9	10	26:35	30
9	Industria	26	8	5	13	35:42	29
10	Fabril do Barreiro	26	6	9	11	21:32	27
11	Moura AC	26	7	5	14	27:50	26
12	Operario	26	6	5	15	22:43	23
13	FC Barreirense	26	5	7	14	31:47	22
14	Estrela Vendas Novas	26	1	2	23	12:66	5