Sport Picks

Portugal

Second Division - Zona Sul 2011/2012

Monsanto

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Estrela Vendas Novas play Monsanto in the Second Division - Zona Sul 2011/2012. It looks like a close match. Recently, Estrela Vendas Novas averaged 0.63 goals scored and 2.31 conceded. Monsanto averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. In past meetings, Estrela Vendas Novas won 2, Monsanto won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 11, 2012 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.72 for Estrela Vendas Novas and 1.63 for Monsanto. This points to a Monsanto double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Estrela Vendas Novas

19%

Draws

48%

Monsanto

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Monsanto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Estrela Vendas Novas picked up more points recently compared to Monsanto.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.72 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 47%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Estrela Vendas Novas Clean Sheet 14%

Monsanto Clean Sheet 19%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Estrela Vendas Novas	Monsanto
Matches Played	32	32
Wins	4	8
Draws	2	10
Losses	26	14
Goals Scored	0.63	1.19
Goals Conceded	2.31	1.31

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2012 Second Division - Zona Sul

Estrela Vendas Novas vs Monsanto

Possession: 45% - 43% Cards: 4 - 1

2:0

Nov 6, 2011 Second Division - Zona Sul

Monsanto vs Estrela Vendas Novas

Possession: 44% - 53% Cards: 2 - 4

0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela Vendas Novas 33 / 100

Monsanto 47 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Estrela Vendas Novas Monsanto

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Monsanto or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.7%

2.44

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Estrela Vendas Novas attacking → ← attacking Monsanto

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrela Vendas Novas scored in 47% of their last 32 games.

Monsanto let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Estrela Vendas Novas went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Monsanto lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

14 Points in last 5 34

0.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Fatima	30	18	6	6	50:30	60
2	Oriental	30	16	8	6	49:17	56
3	Torreense	30	15	11	4	47:27	56
4	Carregado	30	15	8	7	57:38	53
5	Pinhalnovense	30	16	5	9	47:32	53
6	Mafra	30	10	16	4	33:22	46
7	Louletano	30	13	7	10	28:33	46
8	Sertanense	30	11	10	9	37:32	43
9	Estrela Vendas Novas	30	11	5	14	35:34	38
10	GD Tourizense	30	8	11	11	30:34	35
11	1º Dezembro	30	8	10	12	28:29	34
12	Juv. Evora	30	9	5	16	29:42	32
13	Monsanto	30	6	11	13	25:41	29
14	Atletico SC	30	5	11	14	31:50	26
15	Moura AC	30	6	7	17	28:57	25
16	Caldas SC	30	3	9	18	17:53	18