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Stadium Background

Estrela Vendas Novas vs Moura AC

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

60'
Carrasco J.
60'
Carrasco J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Estrela Vendas Novas
6%
Draws
90%
Moura AC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Moura AC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Moura AC have won more games recently than Estrela Vendas Novas.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Moura AC taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Estrela Vendas Novas Clean Sheet 15%
Moura AC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estrela Vendas Novas Moura AC
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 2 9
Draws 3 6
Losses 26 17
Goals Scored 0.63 0.88
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Estrela Vendas Novas vs Moura AC
0:0
Oct 6, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moura AC vs Estrela Vendas Novas
2:0
Mar 25, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Moura AC vs Estrela Vendas Novas
4:1
Nov 26, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Estrela Vendas Novas vs Moura AC
2:2
Apr 29, 2012 Second Division - Zona Sul
Moura AC vs Estrela Vendas Novas
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela Vendas Novas 10 / 100
Moura AC 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estrela Vendas Novas Moura AC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOU Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moura AC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Difficult form: Moura AC registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Estrela Vendas Novas's goal record stands at 45% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Estrela Vendas Novas VS Moura AC
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Lusitano GC26184457:1458
2Amora26176341:1957
3Sintrense26164639:2652
4Moncarapachense26156539:1951
5Louletano26155644:2050
6Serpa26136742:2745
7Estrela da Amadora B26791035:3130
8Lagoa26791026:3530
9Industria26851335:4229
10Fabril do Barreiro26691121:3227
11Moura AC26751427:5026
12Operario26651522:4323
13FC Barreirense26571431:4722
14Estrela Vendas Novas26122312:665