Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium, Dar es Salaam

Ethiopia

0 - 2

D.R. Congo

Our Tip

Match Events

17'

Wolde B.

32'

Sub

Akolo C. In: Bongonda T.

Out: Akolo C.

46'

Sub

Kakuta G. In: Kayembe E.

Out: Kakuta G.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with D.R. Congo advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%

Ethiopia

20%

Draws

23%

D.R. Congo

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ethiopia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence

Ethiopia haven't matched D.R. Congo's recent run of results.
57% — that's where the model lands on Ethiopia taking it.
D.R. Congo arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor D.R. Congo, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
History favors D.R. Congo here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 51.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 0%

Over 4.5 Goals 0%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%

Ethiopia Clean Sheet 68%

D.R. Congo Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ethiopia	D.R. Congo
Matches Played	29	31
Wins	11	19
Draws	5	4
Losses	13	8
Goals Scored	1.14	1.48
Goals Conceded	1.21	0.74
Expected Goals (xG)	0.79	0.85
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

D.R. Congo vs Ethiopia

1:2

Sep 9, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Ethiopia vs D.R. Congo

0:2

Jan 17, 2016 African Nations Championship

D.R. Congo vs Ethiopia

3:0

Jan 18, 1968 Africa Cup of Nations

Ethiopia vs D.R. Congo

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ethiopia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.61

Avg xA / game 0.4

D.R. Congo Compare

Top Goalscorer Bongonda T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Mayele F.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.47

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ethiopia 68 / 100

D.R. Congo 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ethiopia D.R. Congo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ethiopia Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.25 goals when they meet.

Ethiopia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

D.R. Congo's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Ethiopia found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Ethiopia VS D.R. Congo

1.2 Goals Scored 1.5

0.2 Goals Conceded 0.38

40% Over 1.5 63%

20% Over 2.5 25%

0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ethiopia

(Home)

09 Jun

Ethiopia

1 : 1

Malawi

06 Jun

Ethiopia

1 : 0

Malawi

31 Mar

Ethiopia

1 : 0

Sao Tome and Principe

27 Mar

Sao Tome and Principe

0 : 3

Ethiopia

12 Oct

Burkina Faso

3 : 1

Ethiopia

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D.R. Congo

(Away)

01 Jul

England

2 : 1

D.R. Congo

27 Jun

D.R. Congo

3 : 1

Uzbekistan

24 Jun

Colombia

1 : 0

D.R. Congo

17 Jun

Portugal

1 : 1

D.R. Congo

09 Jun

D.R. Congo

1 : 2

Chile

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