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Etoile-Carouge vs Aarau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Stade de la Fontenette, Carouge
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Strohbach I.
46'
Camara S.
52' Event
Camara S.
Assist: Sene O.

AI Match Summary

Etoile-Carouge in this Challenge League matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Etoile-Carouge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Etoile-Carouge
20%
Draws
40%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Aarau have won more games recently than Etoile-Carouge.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Etoile-Carouge Clean Sheet 20%
Aarau Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile-Carouge Aarau
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 9 14
Draws 6 8
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.18 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Aarau
3:0
Apr 7, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Etoile-Carouge
1:3
Mar 6, 2026 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Aarau
0:3
Dec 12, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Etoile-Carouge
2:1
Sep 26, 2025 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Aarau
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile-Carouge Compare

Top Goalscorer Camara S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Correia O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Aarau Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile-Carouge 32 / 100
Aarau 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile-Carouge Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau has conceded goals in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Etoile-Carouge scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Away concern: Aarau has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Etoile-Carouge VS Aarau
0.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile-Carouge

(Home)
09 Oct
Etoile-Carouge
0 : 2
Yverdon
18 Sept
Kriens
4 : 1
Etoile-Carouge
11 Sept
Etoile-Carouge
0 : 1
Winterthur
04 Sept
Etoile-Carouge
1 : 1
Wil
01 Sept
Lausanne Ouchy
3 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
Page 1 of 6

Aarau

(Away)
09 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 1
Aarau
02 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Young Boys
24 Sept
Grasshoppers
4 : 1
Aarau
18 Sept
Winterthur
2 : 1
Aarau
12 Sept
Aarau
2 : 2
Kriens
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 10 7 3 0 20:3 24
2 Yverdon 10 5 4 1 16:9 19
3 Winterthur 10 5 3 2 19:11 18
4 Kriens 10 4 3 3 17:12 15
5 Xamax 10 5 0 5 15:17 15
6 Aarau 10 3 3 4 15:18 12
7 Rapperswil-Jona 10 3 1 6 15:19 10
8 Wil 10 2 4 4 16:22 10
9 Etoile-Carouge 10 2 3 5 8:14 9
10 Stade Nyonnais 10 1 2 7 8:24 5
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)