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Etoile-Carouge vs Xamax - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Stade de la Fontenette, Carouge
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Camara M.
Assist: Facchinetti M.
58'
Sub
Mulaj L. In: Gunnarsson N.
Out: Mulaj L.
58'
Sub
Facchinetti M. In: Fontana J.
Out: Facchinetti M.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League game between Etoile-Carouge and Xamax finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Xamax.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Etoile-Carouge
15%
Draws
36%
Xamax
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Etoile-Carouge

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Etoile-Carouge haven't matched Xamax's recent run of results.
  • 49% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Challenge League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Xamax here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Etoile-Carouge Clean Sheet 20%
Xamax Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile-Carouge Xamax
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 11
Draws 6 1
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.22 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.67 2.11
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Xamax
0:1
May 11, 2026 Challenge League
Xamax vs Etoile-Carouge
3:0
Feb 13, 2026 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Xamax
1:3
Oct 17, 2025 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Xamax
0:2
Aug 22, 2025 Challenge League
Xamax vs Etoile-Carouge
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile-Carouge Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Xamax Compare

Top Goalscorer Camara M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile-Carouge 31 / 100
Xamax 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile-Carouge Xamax

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Etoile-Carouge Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Xamax has conceded goals in 89% of their last 28 outings.

Etoile-Carouge scored in 67% of their last 27 games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Xamax's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Etoile-Carouge VS Xamax
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile-Carouge

(Home)
18 Sept
Kriens
4 : 1
Etoile-Carouge
11 Sept
Etoile-Carouge
0 : 1
Winterthur
04 Sept
Etoile-Carouge
1 : 1
Wil
01 Sept
Lausanne Ouchy
3 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
28 Aug
Etoile-Carouge
2 : 1
Rapperswil-Jona
Page 1 of 6

Xamax

(Away)
02 Oct
Sochaux
2 : 1
Xamax
25 Sept
Zurich
3 : 1
Xamax
18 Sept
Xamax
0 : 3
Rapperswil-Jona
11 Sept
Stade Nyonnais
1 : 3
Xamax
04 Sept
Winterthur
4 : 0
Xamax
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 9 6 3 0 17:3 21
2 Winterthur 9 5 3 1 19:8 18
3 Yverdon 9 4 4 1 14:9 16
4 Kriens 9 4 2 3 16:11 14
5 Aarau 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
6 Xamax 9 4 0 5 12:17 12
7 Rapperswil-Jona 9 3 1 5 15:16 10
8 Etoile-Carouge 9 2 3 4 8:12 9
9 Wil 9 2 3 4 15:21 9
10 Stade Nyonnais 9 0 2 7 6:23 2
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)