Sport Picks

Netherlands

Tweede Divisie 2025/2026 Sportpark Dijkpolder

Spakenburg

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Excelsior Maassluis play Spakenburg in the Tweede Divisie 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Excelsior Maassluis averaged 1.35 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. Spakenburg averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Excelsior Maassluis won 2, Spakenburg won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 7, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.41 for Spakenburg. This points to a Spakenburg double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%

Excelsior Maassluis

21%

Draws

44%

Spakenburg

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Spakenburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Excelsior Maassluis picked up more points recently compared to Spakenburg.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.41 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 89%

Over 2.5 Goals 65%

Over 3.5 Goals 39%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%

Excelsior Maassluis Clean Sheet 17%

Spakenburg Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 80%

Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Excelsior Maassluis	Spakenburg
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	10	14
Draws	7	6
Losses	14	10
Goals Scored	1.35	2.17
Goals Conceded	1.58	1.93
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Tweede Divisie

Excelsior Maassluis vs Spakenburg

Possession: 45% - 53% Cards: 2 - 1

3:1

Sep 13, 2025 Tweede Divisie

Spakenburg vs Excelsior Maassluis

Possession: 42% - 60% Cards: 1 - 2

2:0

Jan 25, 2025 Tweede Divisie

Excelsior Maassluis vs Spakenburg

Possession: 47% - 52% Cards: 0 - 3

3:1

Aug 31, 2024 Tweede Divisie

Spakenburg vs Excelsior Maassluis

Possession: 50% - 44% Cards: 4 - 3

4:1

Feb 24, 2024 Tweede Divisie

Excelsior Maassluis vs Spakenburg

Possession: 47% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Excelsior Maassluis Compare

Top Goalscorer Wennekers B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Tavares Q.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Spakenburg Compare

Top Goalscorer El Azzouti A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.43

Avg xA / game 0.87

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Excelsior Maassluis 35 / 100

Spakenburg 42 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Excelsior Maassluis Spakenburg

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Spakenburg or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +29.5%

3.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.9%

1.69

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Excelsior Maassluis attacking → ← attacking Spakenburg

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Excelsior Maassluis scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Spakenburg let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Excelsior Maassluis went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Spakenburg lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 48

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.57

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.14

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Quick Boys	34	19	10	5	69:35	66
2	De Treffers	34	18	9	7	64:37	63
3	HSV Hoek	34	19	6	9	60:37	63
4	Rijnsburgse Boys	34	16	8	10	76:55	56
5	Hardenberg	34	17	5	12	58:44	56
6	Spakenburg	34	16	8	10	72:60	56
7	Katwijk	34	15	7	12	60:55	52
8	Jong Almere City	34	15	5	14	70:62	50
9	Kozakken Boys	34	13	8	13	47:55	47
10	Jong Sparta Rotterdam	34	12	9	13	71:73	45
11	AFC	34	12	9	13	46:54	45
12	Barendrecht	34	13	4	17	62:84	43
13	RKAV Volendam	34	13	3	18	50:62	42
14	GVVV	34	12	6	16	52:67	42
15	Koninklijke HFC	34	12	3	19	33:49	39
16	IJsselmeervogels	34	9	4	21	46:65	31
17	Excelsior Maassluis	34	8	7	19	39:58	31
18	ACV Assen	34	7	9	18	48:71	30