Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 St James Park, Exeter

Exeter

4 - 3

Arsenal U21

Our Tip

Match Events

16'

Sagoe Jr C.

Assist: O'Neill C.

50'

Magennis J.

54'

Dudziak H.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-3, with Exeter advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Exeter

20%

Draws

40%

Arsenal U21

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence

Look at the last few games and Arsenal U21 come out ahead of Exeter on wins alone.
Model gives Exeter a 40% chance of winning this.
Arsenal U21 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Arsenal U21, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

Exeter Clean Sheet 20%

Arsenal U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Exeter	Arsenal U21
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	5	10
Draws	12	6
Losses	13	13
Goals Scored	1.27	1.34
Goals Conceded	1.97	1.83
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.02
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2025 EFL Trophy

Exeter vs Arsenal U21

4:3

Oct 10, 2023 EFL Trophy

Exeter vs Arsenal U21

0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Exeter Compare

Top Goalscorer Magennis J.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Aitchison J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Arsenal U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Sagoe Jr C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Dudziak H.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.93

Avg xA / game 0.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Exeter 49 / 100

Arsenal U21 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Exeter Arsenal U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EXE Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.

Exeter's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Arsenal U21's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Arsenal U21 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Exeter VS Arsenal U21

1.25 Goals Scored 0.67

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5

75% Over 1.5 67%

50% Over 2.5 33%

25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Exeter

(Home)

10 Aug

Plymouth

2 : 0

Exeter

01 Aug

Exeter

1 : 1

Bristol City

31 Jul

Torquay

2 : 1

Exeter

25 Jul

Weston-super-Mare

0 : 2

Exeter

18 Jul

Truro

1 : 0

Exeter

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Arsenal U21

(Away)

17 Jul

Boreham Wood

1 : 1

Arsenal U21

25 Apr

Manchester City U21

3 : 1

Arsenal U21

13 Apr

Crystal Palace U21

2 : 0

Arsenal U21

04 Apr

Arsenal U21

1 : 0

West Brom U21

23 Mar

Sunderland U21

3 : 1

Arsenal U21

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