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Fabril do Barreiro vs Esperanca de Lagos Prediction & H2H Stats

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2022/2023 game between Fabril do Barreiro and Esperanca de Lagos finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fabril do Barreiro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Fabril do Barreiro
35%
Draws
12%
Esperanca de Lagos
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Fabril do Barreiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fabril do Barreiro come out ahead of Esperanca de Lagos on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Fabril do Barreiro's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Fabril do Barreiro Clean Sheet 68%
Esperanca de Lagos Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fabril do Barreiro Esperanca de Lagos
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 13 10
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.92 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Esperanca de Lagos
3:0
Dec 18, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Esperanca de Lagos vs Fabril do Barreiro
1:0
Jan 19, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Esperanca de Lagos vs Fabril do Barreiro
1:0
Aug 18, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Esperanca de Lagos
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fabril do Barreiro 95 / 100
Esperanca de Lagos 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fabril do Barreiro Esperanca de Lagos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fabril do Barreiro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fabril do Barreiro went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Esperanca de Lagos let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Esperanca de Lagos's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Fabril do Barreiro scored in 53% of their last 38 games.

Scoring Trends

Fabril do Barreiro VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fabril do Barreiro

(Home)
13 Apr
Fabril do Barreiro
2 : 1
Louletano
06 Apr
Industria
2 : 2
Fabril do Barreiro
29 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
0 : 0
Moncarapachense
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4
Fabril do Barreiro
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1
FC Barreirense
Page 1 of 8

Esperanca de Lagos

(Away)
08 Sept
Louletano
3 : 0
Esperanca de Lagos
16 Apr
Esperanca de Lagos
0 : 1
Olhanense
08 Apr
Fabril do Barreiro
3 : 0
Esperanca de Lagos
02 Apr
Esperanca de Lagos
0 : 0
CD Rabo Peixe
19 Mar
SC Angrense
1 : 1
Esperanca de Lagos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico CP 26 15 7 4 43:22 52
2 Lusitano GC 26 15 6 5 35:22 51
3 Juv. Evora 26 13 7 6 37:16 46
4 CD Rabo Peixe 26 13 6 7 33:19 45
5 Imortal 26 9 12 5 31:22 39
6 Fabril do Barreiro 26 11 6 9 31:26 39
7 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 10 9 7 37:33 39
8 Serpa 26 10 6 10 44:36 36
9 Oriental Dragon 26 10 6 10 35:36 36
10 SC Praiense 26 9 7 10 31:32 34
11 Esperanca de Lagos 26 7 10 9 28:38 31
12 SC Angrense 26 4 5 17 17:46 17
13 Olhanense 26 5 2 19 18:50 17
14 Ferreiras 26 3 7 16 17:39 16
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023 (Promotion Group)