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Fabril do Barreiro vs Serpa

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Fabril do Barreiro
35%
Draws
26%
Serpa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Fabril do Barreiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Serpa lately — more wins on the board than Fabril do Barreiro.
  • Fabril do Barreiro are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Fabril do Barreiro Clean Sheet 68%
Serpa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fabril do Barreiro Serpa
Matches Played 30 42
Wins 7 19
Draws 11 12
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 0.87 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Serpa
0:0
Oct 6, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Fabril do Barreiro
1:0
Jan 21, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Fabril do Barreiro
1:0
Sep 3, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fabril do Barreiro vs Serpa
3:0
Jan 22, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Fabril do Barreiro
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fabril do Barreiro 50 / 100
Serpa 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fabril do Barreiro Serpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fabril do Barreiro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fabril do Barreiro went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Serpa has conceded goals in 64% of their last 42 outings.

Attacking prowess: Fabril do Barreiro scored in 53% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

- VS Serpa
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fabril do Barreiro

(Home)
13 Apr
Fabril do Barreiro
2 : 1
Louletano
06 Apr
Industria
2 : 2
Fabril do Barreiro
29 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
0 : 0
Moncarapachense
16 Mar
Estrela Vendas Novas
1 : 4
Fabril do Barreiro
09 Mar
Fabril do Barreiro
1 : 1
FC Barreirense
Page 1 of 6

Serpa

(Away)
26 Sept
Real SC
1 : 1
Serpa
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2
Louletano
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Serpa
1 : 1
1º Dezembro
29 Aug
Serpa
2 : 0
Grandolense
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitano GC 26 18 4 4 57:14 58
2 Amora 26 17 6 3 41:19 57
3 Sintrense 26 16 4 6 39:26 52
4 Moncarapachense 26 15 6 5 39:19 51
5 Louletano 26 15 5 6 44:20 50
6 Serpa 26 13 6 7 42:27 45
7 Estrela da Amadora B 26 7 9 10 35:31 30
8 Lagoa 26 7 9 10 26:35 30
9 Industria 26 8 5 13 35:42 29
10 Fabril do Barreiro 26 6 9 11 21:32 27
11 Moura AC 26 7 5 14 27:50 26
12 Operario 26 6 5 15 22:43 23
13 FC Barreirense 26 5 7 14 31:47 22
14 Estrela Vendas Novas 26 1 2 23 12:66 5
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)