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Fajr Sepasi vs Chooka Talesh

Iran Iran

Division 1 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fajr Sepasi play Chooka Talesh in the Division 1 2022/2023. Fajr Sepasi are favorites here. Recently, Fajr Sepasi averaged 1.36 goals scored and 0.84 conceded. Chooka Talesh averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In past meetings, Fajr Sepasi won 3, Chooka Talesh won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 16, 2023 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Fajr Sepasi and 1.25 for Chooka Talesh. This points to a Fajr Sepasi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

63%
Fajr Sepasi
17%
Draws
20%
Chooka Talesh
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Fajr Sepasi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence
  • Fajr Sepasi picked up more points recently compared to Chooka Talesh.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Fajr Sepasi Clean Sheet 19%
Chooka Talesh Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fajr Sepasi Chooka Talesh
Matches Played 44 30
Wins 23 4
Draws 9 9
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 1.36 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.8
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2023 Azadegan League
Fajr Sepasi vs Chooka Talesh
3:0
Oct 18, 2022 Azadegan League
Chooka Talesh vs Fajr Sepasi
1:2
Jun 1, 2021 Azadegan League
Fajr Sepasi vs Chooka Talesh
2:0
Jan 18, 2021 Azadegan League
Chooka Talesh vs Fajr Sepasi
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fajr Sepasi Compare

Top Goalscorer Mehraban H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Seifi M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Chooka Talesh Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fajr Sepasi 61 / 100
Chooka Talesh 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fajr Sepasi Chooka Talesh

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fajr Sepasi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Fajr Sepasi & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.7%
1.82
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fajr Sepasi attacking → ← attacking Chooka Talesh

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fajr Sepasi scored in 82% of their last 44 games.

Chooka Talesh let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Fajr Sepasi went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Chooka Talesh lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

78 Points in last 5 21
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shams Azar Qazvin32217466:2470
2Esteghlal Khuzestan321415347:2157
3Saipa321510730:2255
4Fajr Sepasi321411740:2553
5Kheybar Khorramabad321216432:1652
6Mes Shahr Babak321015724:2045
7Vanpars321291132:2945
8Chadormalu321112932:3145
9Pars Janoobi Jam3211101126:3143
10Darya Babol328141026:2538
11Esteghlal Molasani32716927:4237
12Khoosheh Talai328111326:3335
13Arman Gohar327101528:4531
14Shahrdari Astara325151214:2730
15Shahrdari Hamedan326111516:2929
16Khalij Fars Mahshahr32781721:4229
17Chooka Talesh324101829:5422
18Omid Vahdat Khorasan00000:00
19Shahr Khodrou00000:00
20Qashqai Shiraz00000:00
21Shahin Bandar Ameri00000:00