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Fajr Sepasi vs Kheybar Khorramabad

Iran Iran

Persian Gulf Pro League
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Niknafs Z. In: Rigi M.
Out: Niknafs Z.
46'
Sub
Bozorg S. In: Babaei P.
Out: Bozorg S.
46'
Sub
Maaali A. In: Yousefi F.
Out: Maaali A.

AI Match Summary

Fajr Sepasi host Kheybar Khorramabad in the Persian Gulf Pro League. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Fajr Sepasi at 1.13 goals for, 1.25 against; Kheybar Khorramabad at 1.13 for, 1.25 against. Past meetings favor Fajr Sepasi slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 28, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.19, favoring Kheybar Khorramabad. Kheybar Khorramabad in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Fajr Sepasi
39%
Draws
31%
Kheybar Khorramabad
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Both Fajr Sepasi and Kheybar Khorramabad exhibit evenly balanced form metrics in recent matches.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Persian Gulf Pro League provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Fajr Sepasi Clean Sheet 68%
Kheybar Khorramabad Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fajr Sepasi Kheybar Khorramabad
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 9
Draws 7 10
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Persian Gulf Pro League
Fajr Sepasi vs Kheybar Khorramabad
2:1
Sep 12, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Kheybar Khorramabad vs Fajr Sepasi
1:1
May 2, 2024 Azadegan League
Fajr Sepasi vs Kheybar Khorramabad
3:0
Nov 15, 2023 Azadegan League
Kheybar Khorramabad vs Fajr Sepasi
2:1
Jan 25, 2023 Azadegan League
Kheybar Khorramabad vs Fajr Sepasi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fajr Sepasi Compare

Top Goalscorer Ashouri S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Kheybar Khorramabad Compare

Top Goalscorer Babaei E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fajr Sepasi 41 / 100
Kheybar Khorramabad 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fajr Sepasi Kheybar Khorramabad

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAJ Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fajr Sepasi scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Kheybar Khorramabad let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Fajr Sepasi went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Kheybar Khorramabad lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fajr Sepasi VS Kheybar Khorramabad
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Esteghlal TEH22118329:1641
2Tractor22109330:1239
3Sepahan22116524:1339
4Gol Gohar23106724:2436
5Chadormalu2298527:1935
6Persepolis2297623:1934
7Foolad22710521:1631
8Fajr Sepasi2386925:2730
9Kheybar Khorramabad2378822:2429
10Malavan2278713:2129
11Esteghlal Khuzestan2267916:2325
12Paykan2359915:2124
13Shams Azar Qazvin23313715:1922
14Aluminium Arak22571014:2122
15Zob Ahan21310812:1919
16Mes Rafsanjan22361313:2915