Sport Picks

Russia

FNL 2025/2026 Fakel Stadium

Fakel Voronezh

1 - 3

Rodina Moscow

Our Tip

Match Events

Timoshenko I.

16'

Abdusalamov M.

27'

Maksimenko A.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2025/2026 game between Fakel Voronezh and Rodina Moscow finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rodina Moscow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Fakel Voronezh

33%

Draws

27%

Rodina Moscow

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Fakel Voronezh

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Fakel Voronezh carry the better recent record into this one.
Fakel Voronezh are the model's pick here, at 40%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
These two have met 3 times recently and Rodina Moscow have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%

Fakel Voronezh Clean Sheet 68%

Rodina Moscow Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Fakel Voronezh	Rodina Moscow
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	13	12
Draws	10	9
Losses	5	7
Goals Scored	1.63	1.63
Goals Conceded	1.25	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 FNL

Fakel Voronezh vs Rodina Moscow

Possession: 60% - 58% Cards: 0 - 3

1:3

Sep 15, 2025 FNL

Rodina Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh

Possession: 47% - 49% Cards: 2 - 1

2:0

Feb 17, 2020 FNL Cup

Rodina Moscow vs Fakel Voronezh

Possession: 53% - 53% Cards: 3 - 3

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fakel Voronezh Compare

Top Goalscorer Pusi B.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Rodina Moscow Compare

Top Goalscorer Timoshenko I.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Abdusalamov M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fakel Voronezh 50 / 100

Rodina Moscow 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Fakel Voronezh Rodina Moscow

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAK Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fakel Voronezh's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Rodina Moscow has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Fakel Voronezh went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fakel Voronezh VS Rodina Moscow

1.63 Goals Scored 1.63

1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63

88% Over 1.5 63%

63% Over 2.5 38%

50% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rodina Moscow	34	19	11	4	58:28	68
2	Fakel Voronezh	34	20	8	6	44:22	68
3	Ural	34	18	7	9	51:31	61
4	R. Volgograd	34	15	11	8	47:26	56
5	Kamaz	34	12	13	9	46:34	49
6	Yenisey	34	13	10	11	37:35	49
7	S. Kostroma	34	12	13	9	46:41	49
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	34	11	15	8	34:28	48
9	Torpedo Moscow	34	12	10	12	37:39	46
10	Chelyabinsk	34	10	14	10	42:40	44
11	Neftekhimik	34	10	13	11	40:41	43
12	SKA Khabarovsk	34	10	12	12	37:45	42
13	Arsenal Tula	34	8	15	11	42:44	39
14	Ulyanovsk	34	9	10	15	35:48	37
15	Ufa	34	9	10	15	32:40	37
16	Chernomorets Novorossijsk	34	9	8	17	37:49	35
17	Saratov	34	5	11	18	16:44	26
18	FK Chayka Peschanokopskoye	34	5	7	22	30:76	22